LDS Freedom Forum

iamse7en wrote:Thanks for all your hard work, Jason. I compiled the installments together here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/72828788/Hist ... in-America" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I hope to go through it sometime soon. Over a hundred pages! Also, I'm a bit behind. Are you leaving LDSFF? Again?

fyi - pick up 95% or more of the news I utilize to create Blipits posts off the right hand column at the blog -
http://yophat.blogspot.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Jason wrote:

iamse7en wrote:Thanks for all your hard work, Jason. I compiled the installments together here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/72828788/Hist ... in-America" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I hope to go through it sometime soon. Over a hundred pages! Also, I'm a bit behind. Are you leaving LDSFF? Again?

Thank you....hope its of value. My final contribution for whatever its worth!

Yeah I'm done. Realized I was getting too wrapped around the axle with trying to convince ignorant people of their ignorance to things that ultimately they desire to remain ignorant about - losing battle if there ever was one! LOL....I must admit though upon reading that sentence back to myself....sounds an awful lot like missionary worth. Last shot at it with this history endeavor....

Anyways I came back to attach my suggested reading list (blog link) to the end of it. Who knows maybe I'll have a change of heart....but for now I gotta take a rest and focus on other more positive endeavors (less beating my head against a brick wall...and trying to come up with creative ways to circumvent that....in which I put myself in compromising situations - Bluemoon5: Thank you again for accepting my apology!!!).

Take care everyone! Godspeed in building the kingdom....however we each tackle that!

fyi - pick up 95% or more of the news I utilize to create Blipits posts off the right hand column at the blog -
http://yophat.blogspot.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Songbird wrote:I miss Jason! (

Well folks, then none of your investment accounts -- not your IRA, 401k, not even your bank account -- is safe.

Diversification is a strategy but the risk remains. It is up to you to decide how much you're willing to risk losing to a crook. If the answer is "none" or you cannot reduce the at-risk portion of your assets to what you're willing to lose to fraud then you can no longer participate in the market at all, in any form, nor even do business with a bank.

That sucks, but it is what it is and if this meme spreads -- and it will until it's stopped -- we run the risk of a "sudden stop" economic event.

I hope you're ready for it -- I am to the best of my ability, and you ought to be.

katmr wrote:Jason, I also appreciate the work you do to bring the most current news.....

Just read in the news about the congressional super committees failure to come to an agreement. What does this mean for us??? Just interested in your thoughts. Thanks in advance!!

I know the capacity that is there to make tyranny total in America, and we must see to it that this agency [the National Security Agency] and all agencies that possess this technology operate within the law and under proper supervision, so that we never cross over that abyss. That is the abyss from which there is no return.

In a USAID press release last month announcing a partnership between the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives and Monsanto on a pilot maize production project in Nepal, we heard the same tired arguments of more nutritious food, increased yields and food security, and the requirement of less chemicals.

As elsewhere, these arguments were used to justify the introduction of hybrid seeds and Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO). Throughout the world there is evidence to the contrary. Two years after the introduction of Monsanto seeds in Canada and the United States, for example, yields started to go down between 10-15 per cent. There has been a substantial increase in the use of chemicals resulting in the creation of "super weeds" requiring more highly toxic "super" chemicals, some containing agent orange.

Canadian activists say Monsanto uses test plots to introduce GMOs into a country because the dominant gene in the new seeds spread through pollination, contaminating conventional and organic farms. Only four years after the introduction of Monsanto's seeds in Canada, no pure canola seeds and no pure soybean seeds remain.

kathedralegs wrote: Thanks Jason

While nearly all Americans head to family and friends to celebrate Thanksgiving, the Senate is gearing up for a vote on Monday or Tuesday that goes to the very heart of who we are as Americans. The Senate will be voting on a bill that will direct American military resources not at an enemy shooting at our military in a war zone, but at American citizens and other civilians far from any battlefield — even people in the United States itself.

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank Executive Board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo urged euro-area politicians to take bold steps toward fiscal union to end the debt crisis, and said they should not rely on the ECB.

“Governments cannot expect the ECB to finance public deficits,” Gonzalez-Paramo said in a speech in Oxford, England, yesterday. “It is now a time for politicians to be bold and courageous” and “complete as soon as possible the great project begun 60 years ago towards ever closer union,” he said.

‘Transfer of Sovereignty’

Germany and France said yesterday they will make proposals to amend European treaties in coming days to impose greater fiscal discipline on euro-area countries as they struggle to win back investor confidence. French President Nicolas Sarkozy also agreed to stop pressuring the ECB to do more after resistance from German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Gonzalez-Paramo said there is a need for “more economic and financial integration for the euro area, with a significant transfer of sovereignty to the EMU level over fiscal, structural and financial policies.”

Senate Moves To Allow Military To Intern Americans Without Trial

Under the ‘worldwide indefinite detention without charge or trial’ provision of S.1867, the National Defense Authorization Act bill, which is set to be up for a vote on the Senate floor Monday, the legislation will “basically say in law for the first time that the homeland is part of the battlefield,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who supports the bill.

The bill was drafted in secret by Senators Carl Levin (D-Mich.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.), before being passed in a closed-door committee meeting without any kind of hearing. The language appears in sections 1031 and 1032 of the NDAA bill.

“I would also point out that these provisions raise serious questions as to who we are as a society and what our Constitution seeks to protect,” Colorado Senator Mark Udall said in a speech last week.

One section of these provisions, section 1031, would be interpreted as allowing the military to capture and indefinitely detain American citizens on U.S. soil. Section 1031 essentially repeals the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 by authorizing the U.S. military to perform law enforcement functions on American soil.

Ilargi: I'm under the impression that it’s not all that difficult to see what goes on and why in the financial world these days. Everyone simply keeps talking about what Germany should do, and about eurobonds etc., but a relatively concise overview of a few numbers should be adequate to point out that none of that "solution" talk is based on too much realism.

That’s not to say that it's impossible that Germany would succumb to the growing pressure to "act", just that even it it did, not one underlying issue would be solved. Instead, it would mean that the Germans would take the huge risk of taking on enormous losses incurred by other countries and their banks.

Germans may have enjoyed their spot in the safe haven limelight a bit too much to see the mote in their own eyes, but that should not mean they must keep on doing so. All's not well in Berlin either.

Let's do a list of where several countries stand at this point (I made a list of 10-year sovereign bond yields at 8.00 AM EST):


Greece: Will be broke in 3 weeks unless it receives the €8 billion next bailout tranche. It will get this only if the main opposition party signs a letter declaring its support for the EU/CB/IMF troika's austerity measures and budget cuts, supported by new technocrat PM Papademos. Opposition leader Samaras has so far refused to sign.
10-year bond yields 29.87%.

Portugal: Downgraded by Fitch to junk status. 2012 GDP expected to fall 3%. Portugal expected to need the same level of bailout as Greece, though a 50% debt writedown has been ruled out by the Greece deal.
10-year bond yields 12.32%.

Ireland: Nominal gross national product (GNP) has already contracted by 22%. Public wages have fallen 12% on average. There are likely to be further wage cuts in the December budget.
10-year bond yields 8.21% (down from 14% in July)

Italy: Paid 6.5% this morning for 6 month loan, 2-year is over 8%. Monti needs to speed things up, or else...
10-year bond yields 7.33%.

Spain: Enormous pressure on the banking system.
10-year bond yields 6.7%.

Belgium: The Dexia bailout deal struck with France recently is rumored to be falling apart; Belgium can't afford the terms of the deal (a €4 billion price tag and a €51 billion guarantee) . It wants France to pick up a larger piece of the pie; which France in turn can't afford to do, for fear of being downgraded.
Update: S&P just downgraded Belgium
10-year bond yields 5.84%.

France: Has been threatened with a downgrade by Moody's. Analysts have claimed losing its AAA status would be the end of President Sarkozy's career. Eurozone chief Jean-Claude Juncker has said it would also threaten the credit rating of Europe's bailout fund, the EFSF.
10-year bond yields 3.67%.

Austria: Will almost certainly lose its AAA status; Eastern European loans (Hungary) are the main culprit.
10-year bond yields 3.80%.

Hungary: Downgraded to junk status.
10-year bond yields 8.83%.

Germany: Had a disastrous bond auction, and its bond yields are creeping up. Has a number of banks with high exposure to PIIGS debt.
10-year bond yields 2.23%.

Netherlands: Germany's little brother, but with an impending housing bust.
10-year bond yields 2.72%.

US: Manages to stay in the shade for now, but a further downgrade is believed to be all but certain.
10-year bond yields 1.92%.

UK: See US, no downgrade threat announced to date. Still a Bank of England expert said this week that its housing market will NEVER recover.
10-year bond yields 2.27%.




• Recently downgraded to junk : Portugal, Hungary.

• Under threat of an imminent downgrade: US, Japan, Austria, France, Belgium.
Update: S&P just downgraded Belgium

• Additional downgrades could be coming fast and furious soon




Simone Foxman at Business Insider presents a nifty little list of 20 European banks that have the worst exposure to the PIIGS. Which means they, too, are under very real downgrade threat.

Here's an abbreviated version, which focuses on PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity:


20 European Banks That Are Desperate For A Solution to The Euro Crisis
by Simone Foxman - Business Insider

We took a list of the largest European banks by assets and compared their market cap, common equity, and total exposure to PIIGS debt (thank you for the bank statistics, EBA!). Then we calculated exposure to PIIGS debt (sovereign and private) as a percentage of the banks' common equity. (Notice that HSBC, ING, and even Societe Generale are all absent from this list.)

So far our track record is pretty good--we predicted that Dexia was the most vulnerable bank outside of the PIIGS back in July. If the eurozone crisis continues to escalate, we will see more and more banks bow to the pressure of exposure and become unable to borrow money.

The worst 20 cutoff for our test ended up being exposure equal to about 175% of common equity, but it really gets out of control once you get to the PIIGS banks (#1-9). But Dexia's fall suggests that bank vulnerability is already seeping beyond the periphery into the core (#10-20).


20 - Royal Bank of Scotland Group (UK)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 175%

19 - Landesbank Berlin (Germany)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 179%

18 - Barclays (UK)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 189%

17 - Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (Germany)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 230%

16 - DZ Bank (Germany)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 239%

15 - KBC Bank (Belgium)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Equity: 247%

14 - Credit Agricole (France)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 293%

13 - Deutsche Bank (Germany)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 327%

12 - BNP Paribas (France)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 358%

11 - Commerzbank (Germany)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 462%

10 - Dexia (Belgium)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 552%

9 - Banco Santander (Spain)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 953%

8 - Unicredit (Italy)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,070%

7 - Bank of Ireland (Ireland)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,385%

6 - BBVA (Spain)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,566%

5 - EFG Eurobank Ergasias (Greece)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,601%

4 - Intesa Sanpaolo Group (Italy)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,638%

3 - Banco Popular Español (Spain)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,927%

2 - Banca MPS (Italy)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 4,666%

1 - Allied Irish Banks (Ireland)

PIIGS Exposure as % of Common Equity: 33,352%



Ilargi: See the full article for exact amounts. I added them up, and these 20 banks alone (No Société Générale, no HSBC yet) have $3916 billion in exposure, almost $4 trillion. Now we all know that the latest Greek bailout talks included the provision for 50% in writedowns, with the specific note that only Greece could do this.

These are amounts too vast for Germany to insure. It would be madness to do so. Many of these banks will soon come knocking for bailouts. Many of the countries too. Just watch their bond yields go up.

As an increasing number of countries gets de facto locked out of credit markets (no country that has to pay 7% -or even close to it- on 10-year debt can do that for long), so are their banks. European banks try to get rid of trillions of euros worth of "assets", but can't find buyers. They even sink as deep as lending the money to potential buyers themselves, see European Banks Get 'False Deleveraging' in Seller-Financed Deals.

Inevitably, the discussion of how rigged Libor rates are flares up again as well. Got to restore confidence in the markets, right?! Basically, the banks are stuck. They can only turn to the ECB, but so far it resists. It did lend a whooping €247 billion in short term (one week) loans this week, but that's not going to help. Says Gareth Gore for the International Financing Review:

European banks' asset sales face disastrous failure

"Banks are feeling pain on both sides of the balance sheet," said Alberto Gallo, head of European credit strategy at RBS. "On the one side you have a funding squeeze with banks unable to raise cash in the capital markets. At the same time, many of the assets they hold are deteriorating in quality."

"Banks need to reduce their balance sheets as much as €5 trillion in assets over the next three years or so," he added. "The problem is that there just aren’t enough buyers. Most banks will be forced to hold on to much of this stuff to maturity, which will affect their ability to lend and impact on the real economy."



Ilargi: Deleveraging, anyone? Gus Lubin at Business Insider writes:

Citi Warns Of A Coming Decade Of Deleveraging

The Western World is just getting started on the second of two lost decades, according to a big report by Citi's Matt King. While the last lost decade was characterized by boom and bust, the new one will be characterized by deleveraging and slow growth.

We haven't even begun to erase the massive debt load from the past few decades. The UK particularly stands near the Japanese peaks of the early 1990s.



Ilargi: Nice one for Citi, but please do note that Stoneleigh and I at The Automatic Earth has been warning about this deleveraging since even before the present site existed.

So you have all these bad assets, which lose value on a daily basis. And even today, they don't sell. Next thing to happen is price discovery, selling them for whatever a potential buyer is willing to pay. Which is less and less, on a daily basis. Without help from the ECB, read Germany, one bank after another will fold.

Unless the US steps in through the Fed and the IMF. But there no longer seems to be any political appetite for this in Washington. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but it’ll necessarily be a convoluted affair if it does. America might do better allowing select banks to default.

The last gasp ideas that now float around Europe are 1) Eurobonds, and 2) new Eurozone treaties. Number one is very unlikely. Charles Hawley at Der Spiegel quotes Wolfgang Münchau to explain why:

The Return of 'Madame Non': Why Merkel Remains Opposed to Euro Bonds

But euro bonds would be an entirely different case. Wolfgang Münchau, the Financial Times columnist who recently began writing editorials for SPIEGEL ONLINE, points out that they would be everything that the German Constitutional Court finds questionable about bailout programs thus far.

They would have the potential to make Germany liable for debts incurred by other countries in the euro zone, the program would be huge (otherwise there would be no point in introducing them in the first place) and German guarantees could be triggered by the actions of foreign governments. "The court's verdict leaves me no alternative but to conclude that (euro bonds) are indeed unconstitutional," Münchau wrote in the Financial Times in September.



Ilargi: Number two, new treaties, suffer from similar problems. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard provides an example why in the Telegraph:

Ireland demands debt relief, warns on EU treaties

The EU's new fiscal rules would be legally binding and "justiciable" before the European Court, [Prime Minister Noonan] said. This raises the likelihood that Ireland's top court would insist on a referendum.



Ilargi: Potential legal challenges in any of the 17 Eurozone countries (or even in the larger 27 country EU) can delay any treaty changes for far longer than the situation can bear.

OK, last of last gasps, China to the rescue. I don't think Jim Chanos sees this as a realistic option:

Chinese Banks 'Built on Quicksand' as Lending Binge Goes Bad, Chanos Says

"[The Chinese government] doesn't [have money], and that's the problem. The banking system in China is extremely fragile, and that's one of the messages we wanted to get to people."

"In fact, because what happened the last two crises, in '99 and '04, when non-performing loans went crazy in China without even a recession, the Chinese banking system was not re-capitalized like ours was, it was papered over.

Going into this credit expansion, Chinese banks are sitting on lots of bonds from the so-called asset management companies set up in 1999 and 2004, and they are keeping them on the books at par, at full value. In the case of Agricultural Bank of China, which we're short, those restructuring receivables are equal to over 100% of their tangible book.

The Chinese banking system is built on quicksand, and that's the one thing a lot of people don't realize. When they talk about the foreign reserves of $3 trillion, what everybody forgets is there's liabilities against that."

"Everybody seems to think it is a free and clear open checkbook. It's not. That is what we have been trying to tell people. Focus on the lending system over there, because everything occurs through the banking system."



Ilargi: We need to start allowing both Eurozone countries and European banks to default. Restructuring where possible, bankruptcy where not. The road we've been on for the past 3-5 years is a dead end street, always was. The wall at the end of it is now right in front of our faces. Want to risk running forward? Throw another, oh, $10 trillion at it to see if anything sticks? Doesn't seem wise, does it?

Moreover, Germany can't afford to risk that sort of money. Neither can the US, or China, or anyone else. Nor can they do it together.

All that's left to do is writing down debt, and let go under who owns too much of it. Deleveraging. There never was another choice.

The IMF warned in a new report that market concerns over fiscal sustainability could trigger a “sudden spike” in Japanese government bond yields that could “quickly” render the nation’s debt unsustainable as well as shake the global economy. At 200% government debt to GDP, Japan makes the PIGGS+ Belgium+ Hungary look like a cake walk. S&P hints that a Japan downgrade is in the works. For those who haven’t seen it, here is the Kyle Bass fast and furious, drift Tokyo presentation on Japan. Debt issuance is twice revenues.

Those who argue for "End The Fed" have yet to reconcile the fundamental nature of the problem: It is not The Fed that is the issue, it is the presence of so-called "laws" with no penalty for non-compliance that is where the problem resides.

In point of fact The Fed's actual mandate for stable prices is exactly correct. Followed to the letter we have no debasement of the currency over time, no inflation, and you can save a mere 7% of your income -- if your Social Security taxes were then to be merely returned to you in retirement along with that 7% you would have an effective 20% saving rate for retirement and would need exactly nothing beyond that for a reasonable retirement lifestyle similar to that of your working years! If you saved nothing you would still have a 13% saving rate and we would meet the mandate of the "social safety net" allegedly to be provided.

If the "law" had actually been followed there would have been no ramp in credit compared to GDP because it could not have been funded. There would have been no Internet bubble, no Housing bubble and no crash. House prices never would have gone materially over 2x incomes and likely would be between 1x and 2x. Medical and college costs would be what they were then. Wages would have risen with productivity but not beyond, and you would have kept that standard of living increase instead of having it stolen by the vipers of Wall Street and the Capitol. Jobs would not have been offshored and there would have been no incentive to hire illegal aliens and displace American workers.

So why didn't it happen this way? That's easy: There is no "or else" in these so-called "laws."

Ending The Fed will do exactly nothing without fixing this problem. Competing currencies will do nothing without fixing this problem. In point of fact essentially every current economic issue we face is found, at some point, in this singular premise.

Those who continue to beat on the "End The Fed", "Competing Currencies" and other similar-sounding drums are either missing the mark because they fail to analyze the problem or worse, they're shilling for those who are looking for yet another way to rob you blind when the current scam, which is about to collapse, comes down around their ears.

Don't fall for it.

(Reuters) - Mexico is being battered its worst drought in seven decades, which has devastated farm life and is expected to continue into next year.

The lack of rainfall has affected almost 70 percent of the country and northern states like Coahuila, San Luis Potosi, Sonora, Tamaulipas and Zacatecas have suffered the most acute water shortage.

Due to the drought and a cold snap at the start of the year, the government has cut its forecast for corn production two times in 2011. It now expects a harvest of 20 million tonnes compared to a previous estimate of 23 million.

Crops that cover tens of thousands of acres have been lost this year and roughly 450,000 cattle have died in arid pastures. Crucial dams, typically full at this time of year, are at 30 to 40 percent of capacity.

"This is very serious," Ignacio Rivera, an official at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, told Reuters. "Statistics on precipitation in the country show us that this year has been the driest in the last 70 years."

The country has total arable land of 22 million hectares (54.4 million acres) that can be tilled over two planting seasons while the national cattle herd last year was just over 32.6 million.

Mexico is one of the world's five top corn producers and the government expects output to recover to 25 million tonnes in 2012, aided by reorganization of the cultivated areas.

Rivera said that of the 8.1 million hectares of farmland insured by the government against natural disaster, some 600,000 claims have been lodged to recover losses on 3.8 million hectares. The Mexican government has so far set aside some 1.6 billion pesos ($113 million) to cover the losses

who hath hardened the hearts of men that they have murdered the prophets, and stoned them, and cast them out from the beginning.

DrJones wrote:Thanks for the Blipits, Jason. I didn't realize that Mexico was facing severe drought conditions at this time. Still more reason to stock up on food supplies, not "hoarding" mind you.

Also this: "Senate To Vote On Legislation That Allows U.S. Military to Detain Americans Without Charge or Trial"
Co-sponsored by Senator McCain, the Republicans' choice for President in 2008. It's clear to me that he was actually the Elite's choice, the LDG's choice. Just as they are now promoting (IMHO) neo-con Newt Gingrich.

If either McCain or Obama had been elected, wouldn't really matter -- the oligarchs would still maintain "sole management of the government" (Helaman chapters 6 through 10). Same is true if either Gingrich or Obama is elected in 2012... Ron Paul would NOT be the LDG's choice, nor will they allow him to become the Republican candidate.

'Anthrax isn't scary at all compared to this': Man-made flu virus with potential to wipe out many millions if it ever escaped is created in research lab

A group of scientists is pushing to publish research about how they created a man-made flu virus that could potentially wipe out civilisation. The deadly virus is a genetically tweaked version of the H5N1 bird flu strain, but is far more infectious and could pass easily between millions of people at a time. The research has caused a storm of controversy and divided scientists, with some saying it should never have been carried out.

Virologist Ron Fouchier of the Erasmus Medical Centre in the Netherlands lead a team of scientists who discovered that a mere five mutations to the avian virus was sufficient to make it spread far more easily.

He conducted his tests on ferrets as the animals have become a model of choice for influenza and have similar respiratory tracts to humans.

Fouchier is so prepared for a media storm that he has hired an advisor to help him work on a communication strategy.

The research done was part of an international drive to understand H5N1 more fully.

Fouchier admitted the strain is 'one of the most dangerous viruses you can make' but is still adamant he wants to publish a paper describing how it was done.

The study is one of two which has caused serious debate about scientific freedom and about regulating research which might have potential public health benefits but at the same time could also be useful for bio-terrorism.

The other paper, also on H5N1, was done by a joint team at the University of Wisconsin and the University of Tokyo.

It is understood to have had comparable results to the study done by Fouchier.

Another CME: In the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 images you can see a pair of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and the second of these may have an Earth directed component. More information on this later today.

Aurora Watch: An aurora watch will be in effect over the next 24-48 hours should Earth receive a glancing blow from the CME on Nov 26 as seen below. Minor geomagnetic storming at high latitudes will be possible should it sweep past Earth.