Recession or Depression by year end

[Original_Intent]

Pento is awesome and I suspect this will be a really good show.

I am so depressed about how ill-informed and mis-informed people are.

People talk about inflation because prices are going up (not their fault, it is what they have been taught) but in the meantime, money is being SUCKED OUT of the system which is deflationary and is what led to the Great Depression and deflation has only happened five times in U.S> history at the rate it is happening now. So this is a big deal.

Anyway, I hope some watch this with me and maybe we can compare notes afterwards.

[Arm Chair Quarterback]

Pento is awesome and I suspect this will be a really good show.

I am so depressed about how ill-informed and mis-informed people are.

People talk about inflation because prices are going up (not their fault, it is what they have been taught) but in the meantime, money is being SUCKED OUT of the system which is deflationary and is what led to the Great Depression and deflation has only happened five times in U.S> history at the rate it is happening now. So this is a big deal.

Anyway, I hope some watch this with me and maybe we can compare notes afterwards.

I’ll let you know. I used to watch one to a lot. Smart analysis.

[PeacefulProtests]

Michael Pento usually has pretty good market analysis, I'll watch the video, but before I do here is my two cents on the topic:

Central banks are raising rates into an unsustainable debt environment. At some point something will break and the FED will be faced with a decision, let the entire system implode or pump trillions into it to try and prop it up once again. Problem is the bond market can't handle another few trillion, and double digit interest rates will be here in a flash.

Let me ask you this, what happens when an entire country like say Canada is highly highly overleveraged on mortgage and credit card debt from two decades of record low interest rates and then within a handful of years we see double digit interest rates?

We are headed for a cliff, and its a LONG way down

[Original_Intent]

I thought it was really good. I made a point in the comments that the more volatile the markets become, the better it is for anyone with foreknowledge of the direction of the moves. About ten minutes later, Pento made the same point, so my confirmation bias sent me several nice dopamine hits.

[FrankOne]

It does appear that something will touch this all off. It's a throw of the dice at this point to determine the near future.

[Original_Intent]

More Mannarino. He sees more clearly than most.

[JuneBug12000]

Pento is awesome and I suspect this will be a really good show.

I am so depressed about how ill-informed and mis-informed people are.

People talk about inflation because prices are going up (not their fault, it is what they have been taught) but in the meantime, money is being SUCKED OUT of the system which is deflationary and is what led to the Great Depression and deflation has only happened five times in U.S> history at the rate it is happening now. So this is a big deal.

Anyway, I hope some watch this with me and maybe we can compare notes afterwards.

I call money being "sucked out" of the system "money sinks." They are a necessary part of a fiat currency system. If you print money but aren't producing enough to keep up, money sinks pull out the extra. They are a tool used to help control inflation. But, like all things fiat, they are dangerous. Most of the time they work, but when they get too big, the balance tips and you have market wide deflation.

Money sinks are not just obvious financial instruments, but can take the form of anything that cost money, but isn't a real product.

I agree that deflation is likely, but strangely so is hyperinflation right now. The balance is teetering and the smallest strain can tip the scale and flip the story.

I highly agree with his suggestions that March 2024 is going to be a big shift. I have stated so before and already given my reasons.

I can remember what he was referencing, but he said said some absolute statement about the Fed. I disagree, even though I don't remember his point, , simply in principle.

Anytime someone says the Fed has to do something or can't do something, they are wrong. They write the rules. They can do anything. And since the collapse is part of the plan, they are under no obligation to "save" the economy. No one should make financial decisions right now on things staying the same.

[Original_Intent]

Pento is awesome and I suspect this will be a really good show.

I am so depressed about how ill-informed and mis-informed people are.

People talk about inflation because prices are going up (not their fault, it is what they have been taught) but in the meantime, money is being SUCKED OUT of the system which is deflationary and is what led to the Great Depression and deflation has only happened five times in U.S> history at the rate it is happening now. So this is a big deal.

Anyway, I hope some watch this with me and maybe we can compare notes afterwards.

I call money being "sucked out" of the system "money sinks." They are a necessary part of a fiat currency system. If you print money but aren't producing enough to keep up, money sinks pull out the extra. They are a tool used to help control inflation. But, like all things fiat, they are dangerous. Most of the time they work, but when they get too big, the balance tips and you have market wide deflation.

Money sinks are not just obvious financial instruments, but can take the form of anything that cost money, but isn't a real product.

I agree that deflation is likely, but strangely so is hyperinflation right now. The balance is teetering and the smallest strain can tip the scale and flip the story.

I highly agree with his suggestions that March 2024 is going to be a big shift. I have stated so before and already given my reasons.

I can remember what he was referencing, but he said said some absolute statement about the Fed. I disagree, even though I don't remember his point, , simply in principle.

Anytime someone says the Fed has to do something or can't do something, they are wrong. They write the rules. They can do anything. And since the collapse is part of the plan, they are under no obligation to "save" the economy. No one should make financial decisions right now on things staying the same.

Central banks ALWAYS end up trying to print their way out. There can and will be many ups and downs, it isn't simply "money sinks" which you seem to consider just a reasonable tool to make it all work.

No, no a thousand times no! You are still being conned if you think that.
Inflation is used to sucker people in and go into debt more and more to participate.
"The stock market always goes up." (Over time GENERALLY TRUE - but the rare exceptions are when there is a massive transfer of wealth!)
"The housing market always goes up!" (See above)

Essentially everyone gets suckered in that they are CRAZY NOT to be taking part in this easy money. People move into larger houses, not only because it is nicer, but also if housing prices are doubling every ten years (just as an example) would you rather double $200,000 or $2 million? Same with stocks except most retail investors have no understanding of fundamentals, they just understand momentum - Apple is going up, up, up, Gee, I want to get on that rocket to the moon!

This is how bubbles are blown - people just piling in because of momentum or because their 401(k) index fund is chasing yield.

When true deflation (which is provably occurring) lots of things happen, a little bit at a time and then suddenly.

Money becomes scarce. Interest rates go up.
Zombie companies that are only being kept alive by monthly borrowing (at low rates) to meet payroll, suddenly are faced with massive debt and they can no longer roll over their debt. Game over. Massive jobs lost.
Companies that are not zombies face the same struggles as zombies, but they are actually viable companies and are able to stay in business, but it is a virtual certainty that they will only survive by letting some employees go.
Lots of people have no jobs and run out of money. They aren't qualified to borrow (other than possibly insanely living on credit cards) which means much less economical activity, selling off of assets to survive etc. and a downward spiral unless "The Fed" comes to the rescue, cuts rates etc. and usually they do this.

But when they don't - everything collapses, and the wealthy who got out early - are able to buy back in at pennies on the dollar. This is "The Great Taking."

[JuneBug12000]

Answers in red.

Central banks ALWAYS end up trying to print their way out. Yes, but since they can't this time, they end the game and start a new one with a new currency. CBDC. There can and will be many ups and downs, it isn't simply "money sinks" which you seem to consider just a reasonable tool to make it all work. No, I don't.

No, no a thousand times no! You are still being conned if you think that.Glad I don't. Just because I understand the machine, does not mean I like it, use it, or support it's use. And I mean this respectfully, you are being conned if you think that money is real. You can't eat gold. You can't buy health. You can't download skills. You can't control others. There is a great reset. Those who dig the pit will fall into it. That includes not just the 1%, as they are called, but anyone who believes they can game the system and win. All who contribute and trust in the arm of flesh will fail.
Inflation is used to sucker people in and go into debt more and more to participate. Yes. I hope you are not participating, with or without debt.
"The stock market always goes up." (Over time GENERALLY TRUE - but the rare exceptions are when there is a massive transfer of wealth!) Agreed. But, that wealth transfer will not happen through the stock market this time. Those in stocks will lose. There will not be money on the other side for a stock recovery.
"The housing market always goes up!" (See above)

Essentially everyone gets suckered in that they are CRAZY NOT to be taking part in this easy money. People move into larger houses, not only because it is nicer, but also if housing prices are doubling every ten years (just as an example) would you rather double $200,000 or $2 million? Same with stocks except most retail investors have no understanding of fundamentals, they just understand momentum - Apple is going up, up, up, Gee, I want to get on that rocket to the moon! People in general don't understand fundamental truth. This is how they allow themselves to be conned into believing that whatever their pet economic theory, it is true and the rest are not. It is why I often recommend the Rudyard Kipling's "The Gods of the Copybook Headings," but it doesn't make a dent for most people.

This is how bubbles are blown - people just piling in because of momentum or because their 401(k) index fund is chasing yield. This -is- how bubble are blown. I do not have a 401(k) or stocks. They do not hold real value right now and are about to disappear like smoke.

When true deflation (which is provably occurring) lots of things happen, a little bit at a time and then suddenly. Agreed. One example, I always buy next year's clothes at end of seasons sales at Walmart. It used to be $3 or $1 based on size and inventory leftover. This year adult women's shirts are going for $1 instead of $3. And, for those who wear them, even the "nicer styles" are $3. Baby clothes have gone down to 50 cents on clearance. What would normally be excess inventory has morphed into deflation. But, it also means that in the not too distant future, unavailability will supersede excess inventory.

We are further along than most realize because modern supplies chains reacted to COVID by over ordering to avoid shortages. "Just in time" was kicked to the curb. An now, the piper will be paid. Overreactions will occur. People will be laid off. Businesses will fail. Shortages will intensify. Recovery for and to the old system is not in the cards.

Money becomes scarce.Yes. Why buy today what will be cheaper tomorrow? Interest rates go up. I'm expecting 20-24% in mortgages. But as the actual home prices drop, pennies in the dollar for cash buyers.
Zombie companies that are only being kept alive by monthly borrowing (at low rates) to meet payroll, suddenly are faced with massive debt and they can no longer roll over their debt. Game over. Massive jobs lost.Already happening.
Companies that are not zombies face the same struggles as zombies, but they are actually viable companies and are able to stay in business, but it is a virtual certainty that they will only survive by letting some employees go. 99% of companies are unnecessary, as are their products. Should they survive?
Lots of people have no jobs and run out of money. They aren't qualified to borrow (other than possibly insanely living on credit cards) which means much less economical activity, selling off of assets to survive etc. and a downward spiral unless "The Fed" comes to the rescue, cuts rates etc. and usually they do this. The Fed can rescue no one. Not even themselves. The downward spiral will happen. I never believed in "call-out tent cities," but I'd believe in homeless tent cities as the fallout continues. I actually believe we are being conditioned to demand stronger squatter laws so that when, in the near future, many end up as squatters in their own homes, the gov will remind everyone they begged for harsher laws.

But when they don't - everything collapses, and the wealthy who got out early - are able to buy back in at pennies on the dollar. Not into the stock market.This is "The Great Taking."I find it immoral that anyone would want to be part of "The Great Taking." But it seems the LDS church would agree with you and not me.

I think the main difference between you and I, and our predictions, is that you believe that there will be monetary recovery. I don't. I think there will be a real goods recovery for those who know how to multiply, tend and till.

That doesn't mean I think there won't be a monetary system, but I wouldn't recommend taking that mark.

[tmac]

JB, in my view, you are a rare woman, to engage in this degree of logic and analysis, and I have a hard time arguing against your logic. Just wish there was more any of us could actually do about it.

[JuneBug12000]

JB, in my view, you are a rare woman, to engage in this degree of logic and analysis, and I have a hard time arguing against your logic. Just wish there was more any of us could actually do about it.

Thank you.

But I can't take the credit.

All glory be to God.

[Original_Intent]

Answers in red.

Central banks ALWAYS end up trying to print their way out. Yes, but since they can't this time, they end the game and start a new one with a new currency. CBDC. There can and will be many ups and downs, it isn't simply "money sinks" which you seem to consider just a reasonable tool to make it all work. No, I don't.

No, no a thousand times no! You are still being conned if you think that.Glad I don't. Just because I understand the machine, does not mean I like it, use it, or support it's use. And I mean this respectfully, you are being conned if you think that money is real. You can't eat gold. You can't buy health. You can't download skills. You can't control others. There is a great reset. Those who dig the pit will fall into it. That includes not just the 1%, as they are called, but anyone who believes they can game the system and win. All who contribute and trust in the arm of flesh will fail.
Inflation is used to sucker people in and go into debt more and more to participate. Yes. I hope you are not participating, with or without debt.
"The stock market always goes up." (Over time GENERALLY TRUE - but the rare exceptions are when there is a massive transfer of wealth!) Agreed. But, that wealth transfer will not happen through the stock market this time. Those in stocks will lose. There will not be money on the other side for a stock recovery.
"The housing market always goes up!" (See above)

Essentially everyone gets suckered in that they are CRAZY NOT to be taking part in this easy money. People move into larger houses, not only because it is nicer, but also if housing prices are doubling every ten years (just as an example) would you rather double $200,000 or $2 million? Same with stocks except most retail investors have no understanding of fundamentals, they just understand momentum - Apple is going up, up, up, Gee, I want to get on that rocket to the moon! People in general don't understand fundamental truth. This is how they allow themselves to be conned into believing that whatever their pet economic theory, it is true and the rest are not. It is why I often recommend the Rudyard Kipling's "The Gods of the Copybook Headings," but it doesn't make a dent for most people.

This is how bubbles are blown - people just piling in because of momentum or because their 401(k) index fund is chasing yield. This -is- how bubble are blown. I do not have a 401(k) or stocks. They do not hold real value right now and are about to disappear like smoke.

When true deflation (which is provably occurring) lots of things happen, a little bit at a time and then suddenly. Agreed. One example, I always buy next year's clothes at end of seasons sales at Walmart. It used to be $3 or $1 based on size and inventory leftover. This year adult women's shirts are going for $1 instead of $3. And, for those who wear them, even the "nicer styles" are $3. Baby clothes have gone down to 50 cents on clearance. What would normally be excess inventory has morphed into deflation. But, it also means that in the not too distant future, unavailability will supersede excess inventory.

We are further along than most realize because modern supplies chains reacted to COVID by over ordering to avoid shortages. "Just in time" was kicked to the curb. An now, the piper will be paid. Overreactions will occur. People will be laid off. Businesses will fail. Shortages will intensify. Recovery for and to the old system is not in the cards.

Money becomes scarce.Yes. Why buy today what will be cheaper tomorrow? Interest rates go up. I'm expecting 20-24% in mortgages. But as the actual home prices drop, pennies in the dollar for cash buyers.
Zombie companies that are only being kept alive by monthly borrowing (at low rates) to meet payroll, suddenly are faced with massive debt and they can no longer roll over their debt. Game over. Massive jobs lost.Already happening.
Companies that are not zombies face the same struggles as zombies, but they are actually viable companies and are able to stay in business, but it is a virtual certainty that they will only survive by letting some employees go. 99% of companies are unnecessary, as are their products. Should they survive?
Lots of people have no jobs and run out of money. They aren't qualified to borrow (other than possibly insanely living on credit cards) which means much less economical activity, selling off of assets to survive etc. and a downward spiral unless "The Fed" comes to the rescue, cuts rates etc. and usually they do this. The Fed can rescue no one. Not even themselves. The downward spiral will happen. I never believed in "call-out tent cities," but I'd believe in homeless tent cities as the fallout continues. I actually believe we are being conditioned to demand stronger squatter laws so that when, in the near future, many end up as squatters in their own homes, the gov will remind everyone they begged for harsher laws.

But when they don't - everything collapses, and the wealthy who got out early - are able to buy back in at pennies on the dollar. Not into the stock market.This is "The Great Taking."I find it immoral that anyone would want to be part of "The Great Taking." But it seems the LDS church would agree with you and not me.

I think the main difference between you and I, and our predictions, is that you believe that there will be monetary recovery. I don't. I think there will be a real goods recovery for those who know how to multiply, tend and till.

That doesn't mean I think there won't be a monetary system, but I wouldn't recommend taking that mark.

I thanked you, but I just wanted to say what excellent responses. In most cases I fully agree with you, in the rest I feel our differences are pretty nuanced, and either it could go either way, or I'm inclined to think you are probably right, but still think I might be, or we both might be wrong. But I really appreciated your thoughts, very convincingly presented.