Yes this is a real recession: jobs numbers propped by multi-job workers

[JuneBug12000]

KSL and major news outlets say the strong job growth counters the claims of a recession and touts the strength of the economy.

Zerohedge says people are getting second jobs to pay the bills and new jobs because of layoffs.

I know what I believe, what about you?

https://www.ksl.com/article/50453372/wh ... -528k-jobs

While inflation hit another 40-year high in June, with the prices of goods and services up an average 9.1% from a year ago, and the U.S. GDP declining over the last two quarters, typically the indicator of the beginning of a recession, July job growth came in at more than double the 250,000 that many economists were expecting.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/somet ... 18-million

In fact, since March, the Establishment Survey shows a gain of 1.680 million jobs while the Household Survey shows an employment loss of 168K!

But wait, there's more, because digging in even deeper, we find that this drop in Household Survey employment is the result of both full-time and part-time jobs. In fact, as shown below, since March, the US has lost 141K full-time employees and 78K part-time employees.

This trend has persisted into June, when according to the BLS, the US labor force saw a 71K drop in full-time workers offset by a 384K gain in far lower paying part-timers (source). The offset? Multiple jobholders, or people who have more than one job.

As shown below, while the number of total employees (per the Household Survey) has stagnated, the number of multiple jobholders has been growing steadily, hitting a new post-covid high in June of 7,541 million.

The increase for June? 92K, which stands in stark contrast to the sharp drop in full-time job holders. But even more notable is that since June, the US has lost 141K full-time jobs, 78K part-time jobs, while adding a whopping 263K multiple jobholders.

And even more remarkable: the number of multiple jobholders whose primary and secondary jobs are both full-time just hit a record high! Hardly the sign of a strong job market, one where people can afford to quit jobs at will.

So what's going on here? The simple answer: Fewer people working, but more people working more than one job, a rotation which picked up in earnest some time in March and which has only been captured by the Household survey.

[Subcomandante]

KSL and major news outlets say the strong job growth counters the claims of a recession and touts the strength of the economy.

Zerohedge says people are getting second jobs to pay the bills and new jobs because of layoffs.

I know what I believe, what about you?

https://www.ksl.com/article/50453372/wh ... -528k-jobs

While inflation hit another 40-year high in June, with the prices of goods and services up an average 9.1% from a year ago, and the U.S. GDP declining over the last two quarters, typically the indicator of the beginning of a recession, July job growth came in at more than double the 250,000 that many economists were expecting.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/somet ... 18-million

In fact, since March, the Establishment Survey shows a gain of 1.680 million jobs while the Household Survey shows an employment loss of 168K!

But wait, there's more, because digging in even deeper, we find that this drop in Household Survey employment is the result of both full-time and part-time jobs. In fact, as shown below, since March, the US has lost 141K full-time employees and 78K part-time employees.

This trend has persisted into June, when according to the BLS, the US labor force saw a 71K drop in full-time workers offset by a 384K gain in far lower paying part-timers (source). The offset? Multiple jobholders, or people who have more than one job.

As shown below, while the number of total employees (per the Household Survey) has stagnated, the number of multiple jobholders has been growing steadily, hitting a new post-covid high in June of 7,541 million.

The increase for June? 92K, which stands in stark contrast to the sharp drop in full-time job holders. But even more notable is that since June, the US has lost 141K full-time jobs, 78K part-time jobs, while adding a whopping 263K multiple jobholders.

And even more remarkable: the number of multiple jobholders whose primary and secondary jobs are both full-time just hit a record high! Hardly the sign of a strong job market, one where people can afford to quit jobs at will.

So what's going on here? The simple answer: Fewer people working, but more people working more than one job, a rotation which picked up in earnest some time in March and which has only been captured by the Household survey.

By anyone's definition, I would not call people being forced to work two jobs in order to make ends meet a sign that things are economically sound. It is as ridiculous as my president bragging about all the money that Mexican workers send back to Mexico being at its second highest number ever as a sign that Mexico's economy is humming along.

Both are symptoms of a MUCH bigger problem.

Problem 1: When a significant portion of people have to work two jobs or even three to survive, that means either:
a) wages aren't going up, or are even decreasing, and/or
b) high inflation has obligated people to work more to make ends meet.

Problem 2: When a significant portion of people have to leave the country to find good work for their families, and a high number of people are willing to go into that nation ILLEGALLY to do so, this exposes the following problems:
a) Not enough good opportunities in the home country.
b) Lax immigration policy towards illegals in the receiving country that has a stronger currency
c) Politicians can look the other way as these illegals are willing to work at or even below minimum wage,
d) Depressing wages for the local citizens already being hit by inflation, causing many to seek for other jobs.

Biden: The fact that people have to work multiple jobs to make ends meet is NOT a good indicator that the economy is going swimmingly along. It simply means inflation is high and out of control.

Lopez Obrador: The fact that your countrymen feel like they have to leave the country to find opportunity elsewhere does NOT mean that Mexico's economy is good due to them bringing back 50 billion dollars into your country. It means your local economy ABSOLUTELY SUCKS, and you need more direct investment both national and international so that those that go to the United States can go due to wanting to go there, but not having to go there.

[Original_Intent]

Another good ZerohHedge story on this..
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-08- ... ut-economy

According to the headlines, the U.S. added 528,000 jobs last month. Unfortunately, most if not all of these “jobs” were created in a spreadsheet, not the real economy.

Let’s dive in.

The most obvious issue concerns “seasonal adjustments.” You see, job growth isn’t spread out consistently throughout the calendar year. Some months typically see greater job growth than others. For example, the Retail and Hospitality industries typically see tremendous job growth during the holidays (November through January), and minimal job growth in other times of the year.

The problem here, is that this is going to make some months look great and others look no so good. So the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tries to get around this with “seasonal adjustments” which are meant to kind of average out the job creation throughout the year.

However, in reality these seasonal adjustments are just gimmick the BLS uses to fake the numbers… particularly at a time when the BLS is under tremendous political pressure to make the economy look better than it really is.

Times like today.

As Bill King notes, the seasonable adjustments for July 2021, were NEGATIVE 65,000. And yet, for some reason, the seasonable adjustments for July 2022, were POSITIVE 287,000.

So right off the bat, there are 352,000 “jobs” (65,000+287,000= 352,000) that were created in a government spreadsheet, NOT the real economy.

This represents over HALF of the supposed jobs created in the month of July 2022!

Then there’s the “Birth/ Death” model.

Throughout the year, new companies are created while old companies go out of business. The BLS tries to get around this issue with its “Birth/ Death” which is meant to average out the numbers throughout the year.

In reality, this too is just another gimmick. And it created another 85,000 jobs last month.

So now we’re talking about 437,000 (352,000+85,000) FAKE jobs.

That’s 437,000 out of the total 528,000 jobs reported for the month of July. Put another way, 82% of the jobs everyone was cheering about were created with accounting gimmicks!

I wish I was done here, but I’m not.

The BLS actually publishes TWO jobs reports… the Household Survey and Non-Farm Payrolls. The Household Survey is based on surveys of actual people while the Non-Farm Payrolls is crafted in a spreadsheet using the gimmicks I’ve already outlined above.

Guess which one tends to be more accurate?

And here’s the zinger… since May of 2022, the Non-Farm Payrolls shows the economy creating nearly one million jobs (926,000 to be exact).

The Household Survey shows the economy has LOST 136,000 jobs over the same time period.

This is the dark secret the bean-counters are trying to hide: that since at last May the economy is LOSING more jobs than it is creating.

There’s a word for this: it’s recession.

Ignore Wall Street and the financial media. The real economy is already in a recession. And those investors who believe the official jobs numbers are being lead like sheep to the slaughter.

[JuneBug12000]

This weekend we had family visit from out of town.

Multiple people had new jobs since our last visit so we talked. We realized that our family -is- this statistic now.

Adult male, Bachelor's Degree- one full time job, one part time. Neither require his degree. Former jobs require degree, but after he was laid off and 9 months unemployed, he went from a white collar to blue collar worker.

Adult female, Bachelor's Degree- three part time jobs. None require her degree.

Adult female, 2 Bachelor's Degrees, 1 Master's Degree. Owns a private business. Also works as a contractor for a government job on a military base. Degrees needed for both jobs.

Adult female, Bachelor's Degree. One job, degree required.

Adult female, Bachelor's Degree. No job, stay at home mom.

Adult male, Bachelor's Degree. Drives Uber.

Adult male. No degree. 1 seasonal job. Looking for permanent work.

Teenage boy. 1 part time job. 1 seasonal job.

Teenage boy. 1 seasonal job.

Teenage girl. 1 part time job. 1 seasonal job.

Even the kids have multiple jobs.

And the sentiment is that we are lucky to have the jobs because things are going or get worse.

No one is willing to quit. Everyone is saving what they can, but it is little to nothing.

Most households have chickens fo supplement food supply, even in town. Some have gardens.

One uses food banks, but no other welfare in the group.

Anybody else want to share their real life experiences/perspectives? I am quite curious..