LDS Freedom Forum

So the church is still releasing the statistical report, and the numbers improved over 2020. My predictions were wrong on both counts. Anyways, here's how 2021 stacked up against previous years. Basically, better than 2020, but still pretty dismal. The church only grew its membership rolls by 141k last year. 2021 and 2020 saw the lowest growth since 1974.

The other stats are also among the worst in my lifetime. Of course, no numbers on the activity rate among the ones still retaining their membership.

The columns in blue are my calculations from the published stats released by the church. Attrition is the number of people formally withdrawing membership from the church through death, excommunication or resignation.
Source: https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.or ... conference

Children of record baptisms continue to decline. We are below replacement level on birth rates so this trend will continue.

Baby boomer generation is starting to die off. Look out as the baby boomers start to die off in mass in the next 10 years.

Do we hit 17 million? I think so, but I doubt we hit 17.5.

It's obvious they are changing the product to appeal to the younger generation to keep the children of record increase.

Wez got big problems.

The church needs to start spending billions on advertising to make the church grow. There should be commercials on TV, radio and billboards all over the world. Why are they hiding the light?

There are now more Members of the church than there are people who identify as Jewish...15 million jews in the world....i would expect a lull in the membership as we walk in the minefield of the tribulations.....

spiritMan wrote: ↑April 2nd, 2022, 5:19 pm Baby boomer generation is starting to die off. Look out as the baby boomers start to die off in mass in the next 10 years.

Do we hit 17 million? I think so, but I doubt we hit 17.5.

It's obvious they are changing the product to appeal to the younger generation to keep the children of record increase.

Wez got big problems.

Actually, the oldest of the baby boomers hit their life expectancy 2 year ago. (Something to think about.) Since life spans grow slowly longer as you move forward in time, the main die off will continue until 2048. Then it will begin to slow as the stragglers take their turn exceeding their life spans.

This, of course, assumes death isn't hastened by events such as a real pandemic, or the adoption of looser euthanasia laws. An understanding of the changes to medical aid in dying laws over the last few years would be a good idea for anyone who might be considered a baby boomer. Know the laws and talk with your kids. It could save your life.

(I hope I don't sound too cavalier about this. I'll take my turn in the cycle of life at some point as well. )

To be fair, we should expect reduced numbers from the last three years. Regardless of what the church did or didn't do, many countries have restricted movement, activity, travel etc, meaning fewer people were able to come into direct contact with missionaries or were willing to let them into their homes.

Like I say, regardless of what they did. (And we know the answer to that. We discuss it all the time.)

largerthanlife2 wrote: ↑April 2nd, 2022, 10:15 pm The church needs to start spending billions on advertising to make the church grow. There should be commercials on TV, radio and billboards all over the world. Why are they hiding the light?

They have had all these. They had the "I'm a Mormon" campaign which was very visible until RMN kicked it into Outer Darkness four years ago.

I still get advertising online. But here's the rub - the church is run by old men. They don't realise the stunts that social media and advertisers do nowadays. You will get an LDS advert if you've just visited one of their websites or watched an LDS video on YouTube etc, so these old men will have done that and seen the advert and thought their advertising is getting wide coverage when in reality they're preaching to the converted.

This stunt also fools numerous other people who use internet advertising and see their own ads, and think the message is getting out there... whereas unless you pay absolutely massive money, your advert will only be shown to those who have already displayed an interest. That may work for some business models but it is limiting and reflexive for evangelism.

Billboards are better for that precise reason. They don't just get seen by those who have already displayed an interest.

farmerchick wrote: ↑April 2nd, 2022, 10:47 pm There are now more Members of the church than there are people who identify as Jewish...15 million jews in the world....i would expect a lull in the membership as we walk in the minefield of the tribulations.....

Questionable. Not only is Jewishness a quasi-ethnic identity, some Jews don't like to record their identity on censuses etc for historical reasons.

largerthanlife2 wrote: ↑April 2nd, 2022, 10:15 pm The church needs to start spending billions on advertising to make the church grow. There should be commercials on TV, radio and billboards all over the world. Why are they hiding the light?

I agree - marketing is key to getting the word out and opening doors - stunned this doesn't happen more than it should

Niemand wrote: ↑April 3rd, 2022, 5:04 am To be fair, we should expect reduced numbers from the last three years. Regardless of what the church did or didn't do, many countries have restricted movement, activity, travel etc, meaning fewer people were able to come into direct contact with missionaries or were willing to let them into their homes.

Like I say, regardless of what they did. (And we know the answer to that. We discuss it all the time.)

largerthanlife2 wrote: ↑April 2nd, 2022, 10:15 pm The church needs to start spending billions on advertising to make the church grow. There should be commercials on TV, radio and billboards all over the world. Why are they hiding the light?

They have had all these. They had the "I'm a Mormon" campaign which was very visible until RMN kicked it into Outer Darkness four years ago.

I still get advertising online. But here's the rub - the church is run by old men. They don't realise the stunts that social media and advertisers do nowadays. You will get an LDS advert if you've just visited one of their websites or watched an LDS video on YouTube etc, so these old men will have done that and seen the advert and thought their advertising is getting wide coverage when in reality they're preaching to the converted.

This stunt also fools numerous other people who use internet advertising and see their own ads, and think the message is getting out there... whereas unless you pay absolutely massive money, your advert will only be shown to those who have already displayed an interest. That may work for some business models but it is limiting and reflexive for evangelism.

Billboards are better for that precise reason. They don't just get seen by those who have already displayed an interest.

I'm not going to comment on whether old men are in charge of these campaigns, but I will say that the I'm a Mormon campaign was big billboards and so it the 'Light the World' campaigns. They've also paid to own the default bannerhead on youtube (seen by EVERY youtuber) for Easter. Somebody out there understands more than the selling to the already initiated.

itsmerich wrote: ↑April 3rd, 2022, 9:40 am

largerthanlife2 wrote: ↑April 2nd, 2022, 10:15 pm The church needs to start spending billions on advertising to make the church grow. There should be commercials on TV, radio and billboards all over the world. Why are they hiding the light?

I agree - marketing is key to getting the word out and opening doors - stunned this doesn't happen more than it should

It's interesting to think about. It's almost like we don't want it that way on purpose.

h_p wrote: ↑April 2nd, 2022, 5:03 pm So the church is still releasing the statistical report, and the numbers improved over 2020. My predictions were wrong on both counts. Anyways, here's how 2021 stacked up against previous years. Basically, better than 2020, but still pretty dismal. The church only grew its membership rolls by 141k last year. 2021 and 2020 saw the lowest growth since 1974.

The other stats are also among the worst in my lifetime. Of course, no numbers on the activity rate among the ones still retaining their membership.

The columns in blue are my calculations from the published stats released by the church. Attrition is the number of people formally withdrawing membership from the church through death, excommunication or resignation.

statistical-report-2021.png

Source: https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.or ... conference

Is attrition rate a % of increase of membership or something else?

zionssuburb wrote: ↑April 3rd, 2022, 9:55 am Is attrition rate a % of increase of membership or something else?

It's my attempt to measure inflow vs. outflow of membership. If you look at the number of members added to the rolls, the church should have grown by a quarter million people last year. But total membership only went up by 141k. Attrition is my measurement of that. So a 44.9% attrition rate means that for every 100 people joining the church, 45 people left.

farmerchick wrote: ↑April 2nd, 2022, 10:47 pm There are now more Members of the church than there are people who identify as Jewish...15 million jews in the world....i would expect a lull in the membership as we walk in the minefield of the tribulations.....

On paper, this is clearly true. But of those 17 million baptized LDS, how many haven't been involved with the church in 10+ years? As a missionary you see people get baptized but they never really understood what they were getting into and they quickly move on with their life having nothing to do with the church.

That 17 million is largely inactive, ranging from people who were once devout that drifted to families of generational inactivity (being Mormon is part of their family background and they show up occasionally but they don't really participate) to people who have literally had nothing to do with the church (for a number of reasons) for a long time.

I'd say true, active members are probably 5 to 6 million of that 17 million. How many of that active 5 to 6 million will be passing away over the next 10 to 20 years? What sort of members will their active member slots be replaced with? More moderate-left or progressive younger adult members? Most likely. What does that do for the body of the church?

And how many of those 15 million Jews are practicing?

BuriedTartaria wrote: ↑April 3rd, 2022, 10:27 am

farmerchick wrote: ↑April 2nd, 2022, 10:47 pm There are now more Members of the church than there are people who identify as Jewish...15 million jews in the world....i would expect a lull in the membership as we walk in the minefield of the tribulations.....

On paper, this is clearly true. But of those 17 million baptized LDS, how many haven't been involved with the church in 10+ years? As a missionary you see people get baptized but they never really understood what they were getting into and they quickly move on with their life having nothing to do with the church.

That 17 million is largely inactive, ranging from people who were once devout that drifted to families of generational inactivity (being Mormon is part of their family background and they show up occasionally but they don't really participate) to people who have literally had nothing to do with the church (for a number of reasons) for a long time.

I'd say true, active members are probably 5 to 6 million of that 17 million. How many of that active 5 to 6 million will be passing away over the next 10 to 20 years? What sort of members will their active member slots be replaced with? More moderate-left or progressive younger adult members? Most likely. What does that do for the body of the church?

And how many of those 15 million Jews are practicing?

Exactly....hard to tell but we are neck and neck with statistics.

zionssuburb wrote: ↑April 3rd, 2022, 9:49 am

Niemand wrote: ↑April 3rd, 2022, 5:04 am To be fair, we should expect reduced numbers from the last three years. Regardless of what the church did or didn't do, many countries have restricted movement, activity, travel etc, meaning fewer people were able to come into direct contact with missionaries or were willing to let them into their homes.

Like I say, regardless of what they did. (And we know the answer to that. We discuss it all the time.)

largerthanlife2 wrote: ↑April 2nd, 2022, 10:15 pm The church needs to start spending billions on advertising to make the church grow. There should be commercials on TV, radio and billboards all over the world. Why are they hiding the light?

They have had all these. They had the "I'm a Mormon" campaign which was very visible until RMN kicked it into Outer Darkness four years ago.

I still get advertising online. But here's the rub - the church is run by old men. They don't realise the stunts that social media and advertisers do nowadays. You will get an LDS advert if you've just visited one of their websites or watched an LDS video on YouTube etc, so these old men will have done that and seen the advert and thought their advertising is getting wide coverage when in reality they're preaching to the converted.

This stunt also fools numerous other people who use internet advertising and see their own ads, and think the message is getting out there... whereas unless you pay absolutely massive money, your advert will only be shown to those who have already displayed an interest. That may work for some business models but it is limiting and reflexive for evangelism.

Billboards are better for that precise reason. They don't just get seen by those who have already displayed an interest.

I'm not going to comment on whether old men are in charge of these campaigns, but I will say that the I'm a Mormon campaign was big billboards and so it the 'Light the World' campaigns. They've also paid to own the default bannerhead on youtube (seen by EVERY youtuber) for Easter. Somebody out there understands more than the selling to the already initiated.

In some parts of the world, yes. I think "I'm a Mormon" was a decent enough campaign. I didn't see any billboards in this country, but I gather they were in Oz. Probably Canada too.

Light the World was also low profile here. LDS folk share it on Facebook. Not a peep about it from non-members.

I've never seen an LDS bannerhead on YouTube. However, I get to see more of their adverts after i've visited an LDS site and not cleared cookies, than on a new browser.

I always despised being called a mormon - but I'd market the campaign to continue the "I'm a mormon, meet the mormons" as a gateway, then immediately within the piece clarify to the reader/viewer that is a nickname but we prefer to be/our official name is called Latter Day saints then never mention mormon again in that piece.

largerthanlife2 wrote: ↑April 2nd, 2022, 10:15 pm The church needs to start spending billions on advertising to make the church grow. There should be commercials on TV, radio and billboards all over the world. Why are they hiding the light?

Dont let the anti-mormon crowd in here know how we should spend church money.

itsmerich wrote: ↑April 3rd, 2022, 7:18 pm I always despised being called a mormon - but I'd market the campaign to continue the "I'm a mormon, meet the mormons" as a gateway, then immediately within the piece clarify to the reader/viewer that is a nickname but we prefer to be/our official name is called Latter Day saints then never mention mormon again in that piece.

when they kicked the term "mormon" out, they didn't give us anything to replace it with - what do we call ourselves?

"Hi, I'm a Baptist, what are you?"

"I'm a COJCOLDS" (doesn't really roll off the tongue, does it?)

or "I'm a Latter-Day Saint" ("really? I didn't know there were any living Saints in the Catholic church".... or "isn't that a bit presumptuous?").

And as far as the decline:

They can advertise all they want; they can send out hundreds of thousands of missionaries. They can introduce programs and goals and checklists; they can rise up with great swelling words or put the fear of God out there. But none of that is going to matter until we become the Saints Christ wants us to be - which includes truly caring about our neighbors with no thought of reward, lowering the divorce rate in the church, stop getting into debt, stop living in huge houses way up on the hill made out of glass, stop viewing pornography, stop being greedy, shopping on the Sabbath, etc, etc,

Until we prove - through our Saintly lives, our peaceable walk, our Charity, our Spiritual Gifts - that we are the Children of Christ...well, growth just ain't gonna happen.

OTOH.....maybe we've already converted all the "save-able" folks out there, and it's time to sort the wheat from the tares, the good fishes from the bad, etc.

itsmerich wrote: ↑April 3rd, 2022, 7:18 pm I always despised being called a mormon - but I'd market the campaign to continue the "I'm a mormon, meet the mormons" as a gateway, then immediately within the piece clarify to the reader/viewer that is a nickname but we prefer to be/our official name is called Latter Day saints then never mention mormon again in that piece.

That's a fair enough POV, and I think a valid one. However, I don't think we should get up tight like Wokeists do about certain words if outsiders use it. In my experience it is not usually ill-meant. The reason we get called it is because the missionaries used to teach from the Book of Mormon.

My only gripe with the word "Mormon" is that it is too close to "moron".

mudflap wrote: ↑April 3rd, 2022, 8:57 pm

itsmerich wrote: ↑April 3rd, 2022, 7:18 pm I always despised being called a mormon - but I'd market the campaign to continue the "I'm a mormon, meet the mormons" as a gateway, then immediately within the piece clarify to the reader/viewer that is a nickname but we prefer to be/our official name is called Latter Day saints then never mention mormon again in that piece.

when they kicked the term "mormon" out, they didn't give us anything to replace it with - what do we call ourselves?

"Hi, I'm a Baptist, what are you?"

"I'm a COJCOLDS" (doesn't really roll off the tongue, does it?)

or "I'm a Latter-Day Saint" ("really? I didn't know there were any living Saints in the Catholic church".... or "isn't that a bit presumptuous?").

And as far as the decline:

They can advertise all they want; they can send out hundreds of thousands of missionaries. They can introduce programs and goals and checklists; they can rise up with great swelling words or put the fear of God out there. But none of that is going to matter until we become the Saints Christ wants us to be - which includes truly caring about our neighbors with no thought of reward, lowering the divorce rate in the church, stop getting into debt, stop living in huge houses way up on the hill made out of glass, stop viewing pornography, stop being greedy, shopping on the Sabbath, etc, etc,

Until we prove - through our Saintly lives, our peaceable walk, our Charity, our Spiritual Gifts - that we are the Children of Christ...well, growth just ain't gonna happen.

OTOH.....maybe we've already converted all the "save-able" folks out there, and it's time to sort the wheat from the tares, the good fishes from the bad, etc.

I wrote a thread on here about Quakers a while back. I asked in Sunday School last year if anyone had heard of Quakers, and a forest of hands went up. I then asked those folk how many of them knew it wasn't their official name. I think only one went up. Yet the Quakers still retain that name in their website, and don't completely disown them. As for the church of Rome, some folk get angry if you don't call them *Roman* Catholics, and others get angry if you stick "Roman" on the front to begin with.

I think instead, we've turned Mormon into one of those things we don't say anymore, and like Woke people have to get angry about. A few examples come to mind - I had someone jump on me for using the word "albino" and said I should use "people with albinism" (as far as I can see that is just playing around with grammar and makes little to no difference to that group... which is one I have absolutely no hatred towards whatsoever.) You can't say words or phrases like "manic depressive" (now bipolar) "Aspergers" (now mostly ASD), "black" (must be other names, depending where the folk are from), "lgbt" (must include + or other letters) or even "leprosy" (Hansen's disease!) without someone jumping on you.

Now we must get angry if someone says Mormon - president Nelson says so!

One of the major elephants in the room is retention. The LDS are good at baptising people, and then good at abandoning them shortly afterwards.

randyps wrote: ↑April 3rd, 2022, 8:25 pm

largerthanlife2 wrote: ↑April 2nd, 2022, 10:15 pm The church needs to start spending billions on advertising to make the church grow. There should be commercials on TV, radio and billboards all over the world. Why are they hiding the light?

Dont let the anti-mormon crowd in here know how we should spend church money.

Then count Jesus Christ as part of the "anti-Mormon" crowd.


46 Now, the servants of the nobleman went and did as their lord commanded them, and planted the olive trees, and built a hedge round about, and set watchmen, and began to build a tower.

47 And while they were yet laying the foundation thereof, they began to say among themselves: And what need hath my lord of this tower?

48 And consulted for a long time, saying among themselves: What need hath my lord of this tower, seeing this is a time of peace?

49 Might not this money be given to the exchangers? For there is no need of these things.

50 And while they were at variance one with another they became very slothful, and they hearkened not unto the commandments of their lord.

51 And the enemy came by night, and broke down the hedge; and the servants of the nobleman arose and were affrighted, and fled; and the enemy destroyed their works, and broke down the olive trees.

52 Now, behold, the nobleman, the lord of the vineyard, called upon his servants, and said unto them, Why! what is the cause of this great evil?

53 Ought ye not to have done even as I commanded you, and—after ye had planted the vineyard, and built the hedge round about, and set watchmen upon the walls thereof—built the tower also, and set a watchman upon the tower, and watched for my vineyard, and not have fallen asleep, lest the enemy should come upon you?

54 And behold, the watchman upon the tower would have seen the enemy while he was yet afar off; and then ye could have made ready and kept the enemy from breaking down the hedge thereof, and saved my vineyard from the hands of the destroyer.

BuriedTartaria wrote: ↑April 3rd, 2022, 10:27 am

farmerchick wrote: ↑April 2nd, 2022, 10:47 pm There are now more Members of the church than there are people who identify as Jewish...15 million jews in the world....i would expect a lull in the membership as we walk in the minefield of the tribulations.....

On paper, this is clearly true. But of those 17 million baptized LDS, how many haven't been involved with the church in 10+ years? As a missionary you see people get baptized but they never really understood what they were getting into and they quickly move on with their life having nothing to do with the church.

That 17 million is largely inactive, ranging from people who were once devout that drifted to families of generational inactivity (being Mormon is part of their family background and they show up occasionally but they don't really participate) to people who have literally had nothing to do with the church (for a number of reasons) for a long time.

I'd say true, active members are probably 5 to 6 million of that 17 million. How many of that active 5 to 6 million will be passing away over the next 10 to 20 years? What sort of members will their active member slots be replaced with? More moderate-left or progressive younger adult members? Most likely. What does that do for the body of the church?

And how many of those 15 million Jews are practicing?

5 to 6 out of 17 is pretty low IMHO. The US/Canada are mostly in the 50% to 80% range - Large Mo Populated areas are normally in the higher ranges, 60%-80% - I've seen stats for a major city in the US that is NOT in the West and the average of the 13 stakes I saw was 70% - some areas there were in the 80's and 90's in attendance. Outside the US there are some bigger problems, but I think Oaks and Holland's tenure in Philippines and Chile fixed the worst of the problems. Europe is the worst at this point. It's really had for me not to see the number being more like 8-11 million who are actively participating or have part of their family actively participating

zionssuburb wrote: ↑April 4th, 2022, 10:23 am

BuriedTartaria wrote: ↑April 3rd, 2022, 10:27 am

farmerchick wrote: ↑April 2nd, 2022, 10:47 pm There are now more Members of the church than there are people who identify as Jewish...15 million jews in the world....i would expect a lull in the membership as we walk in the minefield of the tribulations.....

On paper, this is clearly true. But of those 17 million baptized LDS, how many haven't been involved with the church in 10+ years? As a missionary you see people get baptized but they never really understood what they were getting into and they quickly move on with their life having nothing to do with the church.

That 17 million is largely inactive, ranging from people who were once devout that drifted to families of generational inactivity (being Mormon is part of their family background and they show up occasionally but they don't really participate) to people who have literally had nothing to do with the church (for a number of reasons) for a long time.

I'd say true, active members are probably 5 to 6 million of that 17 million. How many of that active 5 to 6 million will be passing away over the next 10 to 20 years? What sort of members will their active member slots be replaced with? More moderate-left or progressive younger adult members? Most likely. What does that do for the body of the church?

And how many of those 15 million Jews are practicing?

5 to 6 out of 17 is pretty low IMHO. The US/Canada are mostly in the 50% to 80% range - Large Mo Populated areas are normally in the higher ranges, 60%-80% - I've seen stats for a major city in the US that is NOT in the West and the average of the 13 stakes I saw was 70% - some areas there were in the 80's and 90's in attendance. Outside the US there are some bigger problems, but I think Oaks and Holland's tenure in Philippines and Chile fixed the worst of the problems. Europe is the worst at this point. It's really had for me not to see the number being more like 8-11 million who are actively participating or have part of their family actively participating

Attendance rates in Scotland are around 10% and that's being generous. They've gone down since the Covid business too.

Most of the inactives are people who went off within a few months. They don't really know the church well if at all. The second biggest group is probably children or relatives of church members after they reach adulthood. We have had several prominent members with no active children at all.

Well… the church is real good about gleaning, but really does a poor job harvesting…

The scriptures are full of references about Harvesting and reaping and whatnot.

The actual act of harvesting, is a onetime act of concentrated effort to gather the fruits of the field, separating the fruit from the stalk/branch/chaff and bringing the fruit into the storehouse.

It is a finite quick activity. There is an end to it. Once through the field/grove and the harvest is brought in.

There is no going back out into the same fields to harvest again.

The gatherers move on to the other ripe fields. Until all fields have been harvested.

Then winter comes. A long period of dormancy.

The harvest by its very nature leaves some of the crop behind. Whether missed, dropped, or un-ripe at the time of the harvest, the majority is gathered and brought in, and no one cries about what is left behind. If fact, it is understood that some is left behind, for the birds, and for the poor who glean the fields looking for morsels to give them sustenance.

Also, the harvesters don’t spend much, if any time in low yielding areas. They move quickly thru the rocky/dry/bleak areas where the crop yields are poor.


So looking at the current missionary focus, why have we established missions in parts of the world, and stayed there in each area, for decades and decades working to glean the few tidbits of converts remaining after the initial harvest?

Here we are, 200 years after the restoration, and we are still harvesting? (Actually gleaning).

Seems like the we should have gone all over the earth already. Every corner should have had missionaries proclaiming the restoration.

I mean, Elders could have been sent, 2x2 in the tens of thousands to every country, to walk through and harvest every soul ready and ripe.

Yet here we sit, with a centralized command HQ, and have been told the church can’t grow so fast by flooding the world.

Instead we have 60,000 missionaries, at the youngest possible age trodding well harvested ground again and again.

What if we sent out 60,000 mature priesthood to every land, baptizing and setting up branches in all lands at once?

Besides the teetering of HQ, and forcing the Apostles to get out into the world and live among impoverished new converts, what would become of it?

Might not Satan’s grip on the world be weakened by having such a bright clear light of the gospel as an ensign to all the faithful at heart, no matter where they are?

And does not the surge of converts raise the awareness and bring more along with them and thus begins the division between faithful repentant, and the rest..??

Just wondering how it’s gonna come to pass.. because using an orderly corporate business model, of controlled growth, with limits to the exercise of priesthood authority and stamping out disruptive innovation is not gonna fulfill scriptural prophecy.