2020 Presidential Election Predictions

[gkearney]

One thing that’s making this election cycle hard to predict is the very high rate of early voting. Some states have already passed their 2016 total vote count. Early voting would seem to suggest that many voters had made up their minds early on. It also mean that last minute surprises or a big push by a candidate is weakened because the voter is not able to pull back a vote he already cast.

[Lexew1899]

One thing that’s making this election cycle hard to predict is the very high rate of early voting. Some states have already passed their 2016 total vote count. Early voting would seem to suggest that many voters had made up their minds early on. It also mean that last minute surprises or a big push by a candidate is weakened because the voter is not able to pull back a vote he already cast.

Here in Texas I read that early voting has already surpassed ALL votes from 2016.

[Gospel Donkey]

The 'black' and latino vote is going to bite Biden - in the glutes... and take him down....

Biden Advisers Sound Red Alert Over Black, Latino Turnout
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bid ... no-turnout

[captainfearnot]

I think Biden is going to win, and it's going to be clear on election night and kind of anticlimactic. Not because it's a huge landslide necessarily—I don't think he's going to win Texas—but maybe he decisively wins FL and NC, and it's over. Whatever drama might be heating up in PA won't matter. There won't be chaos and mass rioting.

I think Trump is suddenly going to reverse course at that point, and become the one calling for every vote to be counted. I say this because that's always how it seems to go. In Bush v. Gore, each side's lawyers favored certain recount methods that they thought would benefit their side, and in the end their preferred methods almost always ended up working against them. So maybe a lot more of those late arriving mail-in ballots turn out to be for Trump than anyone imagined. But not enough.

I don't expect any kind of substantive legal challenge from Trump. I think all his bluster about voter fraud and the mail-in ballots and having a winner announced on election night has never been based on anything substantial, and is really about creating an excuse not to concede. He knows he's going to lose, and he knows his ego won't allow him to make that gracious and conciliatory phone call that the losing candidate always makes. So he's inventing an out for himself. Just like he could never admit that he lost the meaningless popular vote to Hillary, instead inventing three million illegitimate votes cast by illegals. That's just how he operates.

And Biden's presidency will be boring and the Dems will get hammered in the midterms after the emergence of whatever the new Tea Party is called.

[mahalanobis]

I think Biden is going to win, and it's going to be clear on election night and kind of anticlimactic. Not because it's a huge landslide necessarily—I don't think he's going to win Texas—but maybe he decisively wins FL and NC, and it's over. Whatever drama might be heating up in PA won't matter. There won't be chaos and mass rioting.

I think Trump is suddenly going to reverse course at that point, and become the one calling for every vote to be counted. I say this because that's always how it seems to go. In Bush v. Gore, each side's lawyers favored certain recount methods that they thought would benefit their side, and in the end their preferred methods almost always ended up working against them. So maybe a lot more of those late arriving mail-in ballots turn out to be for Trump than anyone imagined. But not enough.

I don't expect any kind of substantive legal challenge from Trump. I think all his bluster about voter fraud and the mail-in ballots and having a winner announced on election night has never been based on anything substantial, and is really about creating an excuse not to concede. He knows he's going to lose, and he knows his ego won't allow him to make that gracious and conciliatory phone call that the losing candidate always makes. So he's inventing an out for himself. Just like he could never admit that he lost the meaningless popular vote to Hillary, instead inventing three million illegitimate votes cast by illegals. That's just how he operates.

And Biden's presidency will be boring and the Dems will get hammered in the midterms after the emergence of whatever the new Tea Party is called.

I actually hope you are right (especially the boring part). It's not that I want Biden to win though.

But I don't think it will pan out that way.

[Lexew1899]

If the polls are as wrong this year as they were in 2016, here are the results.

With the count being Trump 279, to Biden 259. I would tend to think the polls are even more wrong this cycle however.

[Zathura]

Lend me some of your optimism then lol. All of my friends who are pro Trump since last election are sure he will win again and I'm alone in thinking he will lose.

[Lexew1899]

Lend me some of your optimism then lol. All of my friends who are pro Trump since last election are sure he will win again and I'm alone in thinking he will lose.

Impossible to know for sure. Here is an even more optimistic poll. Seems far fetched to me, but we will see.

It means he is on course to easily win the electoral college by 326 to 212 votes against his Democrat rival in a result which would shock the world even more than his astonishing defeat of Hilary Clinton in 2016.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/13 ... ing-states

[tribrac]

Bidens wins.

Celebrations turn into looting nationwide. He announces a covid lockdown to begin January . immediately the FBI raids Right Miltias across the country rounding up "terrorists". Trump supporerts homes and businesses burned. Hunter Biden becomes richer than Trump overnight. Ldsff looses its collective mind. My neighbor leaves for his bunker. And the country goes to war against Russia within 18 months. And while we are looking at Russia China takes Taiwan and entrenches in the Philippines.
Trump is arrested, tried and then granted clemency on the condition that he shut up...he lives out his days quietly in NY and Israel.

[tribrac]

Trump wins.

Nationwide protests turn to riots. Federal buildings burned, police injured. Protesters target Trump Supporter homes and businesses, many are burned. Battle ground states become actual battlefields.

Democratic Governors become hardline "states rights" overnight and challenge Federal control of all things. Blue states form coalitions. Travel bans and boycotts of Red states. Pelosi undermines president by meeting with foreign ministers .

President Nelson calls for peace and reconciliation and LDSFF loses its collective mind.

[ori]

Nate Silver says the Trafalgar polls are crazy wrong. But let's remember that Trafalgar nailed the 2016 predictions. They got the electoral college right and correctly called nearly every state.

I'm intrigued. Do you have a source for this?

[ori]

President Nelson calls for peace and reconciliation and LDSFF loses its collective mind.

LOL

[mahalanobis]

Nate Silver says the Trafalgar polls are crazy wrong. But let's remember that Trafalgar nailed the 2016 predictions. They got the electoral college right and correctly called nearly every state.

I'm intrigued. Do you have a source for this?

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... 016-433619

They ask many questions including:
* who do you think your friends and neighbors will vote for

The idea is that people are reluctant to share their true opinion, but they will not hesitate to tell the truth to that one.

It sounds crazy, but their model has nailed the 2016 presidential election, the 2018 midterms, and some European elections too.

I don't know what's going to happen, but I think Trump has a far better chance than what the media would have us think. It might be a coin toss.

[ori]

Nate Silver says the Trafalgar polls are crazy wrong. But let's remember that Trafalgar nailed the 2016 predictions. They got the electoral college right and correctly called nearly every state.

I'm intrigued. Do you have a source for this?

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... 016-433619

They ask many questions including:
* who do you think your friends and neighbors will vote for

The idea is that people are reluctant to share their true opinion, but they will not hesitate to tell the truth to that one.

It sounds crazy, but their model has nailed the 2016 presidential election, the 2018 midterms, and some European elections too.

I don't know what's going to happen, but I think Trump has a far better chance than what the media would have us think. It might be a coin toss.

Thanks. Sorry, I was referring to what Nate Silver thinks. Do you have a source for that? I didn’t see anything about Silver in your link.

[mahalanobis]

Nate Silver says the Trafalgar polls are crazy wrong. But let's remember that Trafalgar nailed the 2016 predictions. They got the electoral college right and correctly called nearly every state.

I'm intrigued. Do you have a source for this?

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... 016-433619

They ask many questions including:
* who do you think your friends and neighbors will vote for

The idea is that people are reluctant to share their true opinion, but they will not hesitate to tell the truth to that one.

It sounds crazy, but their model has nailed the 2016 presidential election, the 2018 midterms, and some European elections too.

I don't know what's going to happen, but I think Trump has a far better chance than what the media would have us think. It might be a coin toss.

Thanks. Sorry, I was referring to what Nate Silver thinks. Do you have a source for that? I didn’t see anything about Silver in your link.

He's made several tweets calling out Trafalgar and Rasmussen, on more that one occasion.

Maybe he's right and Trump will get completely eviscerated on election day. Time will tell.

[Chip]

This Italian priest relates a story of an American, living in northern Italy as a hermit, who prophesied in the 1980's that Donald J. Trump would lead America back to God:

https://youtu.be/lyV7kwMRzdo

[Chip]

Trump acknowledged Jesus Christ yesterday:

https://youtu.be/nNqAv0ZloKQ

[Cruiserdude]

This Italian priest relates a story of an American, living in northern Italy as a hermit, who prophesied in the 1980's that Donald J. Trump would lead America back to God:

https://youtu.be/lyV7kwMRzdo

This stuff is wild. I actually really like that story. Thanks for sharing that
Last week, someone shared another youtube Trump prophecy from like 2007!!! I was shocked, was first 'Trump prophecy' video I had ever watched, I just don't really get into videos too much. Unless I know beforehand they're chocked full of truth. I wasn't a big fan of the dude with his black/dark robes (reminded me too much of someone else).
But I like this story of the hermit

[Cruiserdude]

If the polls are as wrong this year as they were in 2016, here are the results.

With the count being Trump 279, to Biden 259. I would tend to think the polls are even more wrong this cycle however.

Lexew1899 what's the latest info/data you have???? How do I get him on this message? @Lexew1899

[Chip]

This Italian priest relates a story of an American, living in northern Italy as a hermit, who prophesied in the 1980's that Donald J. Trump would lead America back to God:

https://youtu.be/lyV7kwMRzdo

This stuff is wild. I actually really like that story. Thanks for sharing that
Last week, someone shared another youtube Trump prophecy from like 2007!!! I was shocked, was first 'Trump prophecy' video I had ever watched, I just don't really get into videos too much. Unless I know beforehand they're chocked full of truth. I wasn't a big fan of the dude with his black/dark robes (reminded me too much of someone else).
But I like this story of the hermit

It's amazing how many Christian prophets have predicted Trump. The Mark Taylor and Kim Clement stories are really amazing. And I really like this little talk by Kevin Zadai:

https://youtu.be/Cll-_FMuQkM

Last night, we did as Kevin Zadai said God told him to do and we got together with another family from our Ward who is like-minded and we prayed in a circle outside and had a wonderful prayer where we petitioned God that justice would be done in our country and people would realize what is going on and those who are perpetrating evil would be exposed for all to see. Many amazing things were said in the prayer. It was awesome.

[Lexew1899]

If the polls are as wrong this year as they were in 2016, here are the results.

With the count being Trump 279, to Biden 259. I would tend to think the polls are even more wrong this cycle however.

Lexew1899 what's the latest info/data you have???? How do I get him on this message? @Lexew1899

Most the polls are done now. Exit polls will come out tomorrow afternoon, but those were very incorrect in 2016. Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio are all key. Whoever wins those will probably win it all.

[Lexew1899]

Here is a pretty good prediction from Tarl Warwick. He was basically spot on in 2016.

[EmmaLee]

https://www.theblaze.com/news/pittsburg ... Daily%20AM

NOVEMBER 01, 2020
Top swing-state newspaper hasn't endorsed Republican in almost 50 years — but is backing Trump now

One of Pennsylvania's top newspapers has endorsed President Donald Trump over Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, a major win for Trump in a state that is critical to winning the White House.

The endorsement was even more significant because the newspaper has not endorsed a Republican for president in nearly a half-century.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette editorial board, one of Pennsylvania's largest newspapers, revealed late Saturday that Trump is their man.

"This newspaper has not supported a Republican for president since 1972. But we believe President Trump, for all his faults, is the better choice this year," the newspaper announced on Twitter.

Listing the reasons Americans should vote for Trump, the editorial board said:

The Economy: "Under Donald Trump the economy, pre-COVID, boomed, like no time since the 1950s. Look at your 401(k) over the past three years."

Employment: "Unemployment for Black Americans is lower than it has ever been, under any president of either party."

Trade: "Under Mr. Trump, our trade relationships have vastly improved and our trade deals have been rewritten. Thanks to him, middle America is on the map again and the Appalachian and hourly worker has some hope."

The Supreme Court: "He also kept his promise to appoint originalists to the Supreme Court of the United States. His third appointment, Amy Coney Barrett, is the best of all — a jurist whose mind and character and scholarship ARE first class."

Energy Independence: "Under Mr. Trump the United States achieved energy independence for the first time in the lifetimes of most of us. Where would Western Pennsylvania be without the Shell Petrochemical Complex (the "cracker plant")?"

The Post-Gazette editorial board also celebrated Trump's "America first" attitude.

"No one ever asked the American people, or the people in 'flyover,' country, if they wanted to send their jobs abroad — until Mr. Trump. He has moved the debate, in both parties, from free trade, totally unfettered, to managed, or fair, trade. He has put America first, just as he said he would," the board wrote.

Regarding the coronavirus pandemic, the editorial board said, "Has Mr. Trump handled the pandemic perfectly? No. But no one masters a pandemic. And the president was and is right that we must not cower before the disease and we have to keep America open and working."

Why not Biden?

According to the newspaper's editors, Biden is simply not up to the challenge of being America's commander in chief.

"Mr. Biden is too old for the job, and fragile. There is a very real chance he will not make it through the term," the board wrote.

"Mr. Trump is also too old but seemingly robust. But in Mike Pence, Mr. Trump has a vice president ready to take over, if need be. He is a safe pair of hands," the editors continued. "Sen. Kamala Harris gives no evidence of being ready to be president."

[EmmaLee]

https://www.theblaze.com/news/battlegro ... Daily%20AM

NOVEMBER 01, 2020
Democrats in key battleground states are 'sounding the alarm,' growing 'more anxious' about Trump win
'I am worried about Pennsylvania'

With less than three days to go before polls close on Election Day, Democratic operatives in states that Democratic nominee Joe Biden must win in order to defeat President Donald Trump are beginning to panic.

Despite Biden holding a sizable lead in most polling, Democratic operatives in Pennsylvania, a state critical to winning the White House, are sounding the alarm over the possibility that Biden's lead in the state is not as solid as polls indicate.

According to the Washington Post, Democratic confidence "has eroded in recent weeks with emerging signs of a tightening contest in the state," resulting in Democrats growing "more anxious" about a Trump win.

The reasons behind Democratic anxiety are varied, according to the Post. They point to the recent violence in Philadelphia as helping Trump, who paints himself as tough on crime. Democrats are also concerned about a last-minute surge from rural voters, who heavily favor Trump. Democrats are also worried about lower-than-expected turnout from Democratic voters who may potentially lack enthusiasm for Biden. They also worry that Biden's confusing position on fracking may hurt his standing with Pennsylvania voters.

Neil Oxman, a veteran Democratic strategist, told the Post, "I am worried about Pennsylvania." His anxiety centers on an observation that Trump's voter base is "a little bit stronger than our base."

Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, told the Post, "The president has a very strong, sturdy base here, and what he's doing is juicing turnout in those small counties."

Meanwhile, in Florida, Democrats are "sounding the alarm" over weak Democratic voter turnout, Politico reported — and the problem appears to be self-inflected.

From Politico:

No Democrat can win Florida without a huge turnout and big winning margins here to offset losses elsewhere in the state. But Democrats are turning out at lower rates than Republicans and at lower rates than at this point in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won by 29 percentage points here and still lost the state to Donald Trump.

One particular area of concern is the relative share of ballots cast by young voters of color and less-reliable Democratic voters. Part of the problem, according to interviews with a dozen Democratic elected officials and operatives, is the Biden campaign's decision to discourage field staff from knocking on doors during the pandemic and its subsequent delay in greenlighting — and funding — a return to door-to-door canvassing.

Indeed, over the last week, Republicans have made significant cuts to Democrats' lead in early voting and mail-in voting in The Sunshine State.

By Sunday, Republicans trailed Democrats by an even smaller margin. And considering that many Republicans traditionally wait until Election Day to vote, while Democrats take advantage of early voting, all the pieces are aligning for another Trump upset.

As for polling, The Trafalgar Group, which correctly predicted Trump's 2016 lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan, has found that Trump, once again, holds a small lead in both states despite nearly every other poll saying otherwise.

Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group, told The Hill, "There are more [shy Trump voters] than last time and it's not even a contest."

[EmmaLee]

https://www.theblaze.com/news/final-pol ... Daily%20PM

NOVEMBER 01, 2020
Final poll: Trump takes major lead in battleground state after being tied with Biden just weeks ago
'There's a consistent story in 2020 to what happened in 2016'

President Donald Trump has taken a significant lead over Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in Iowa, signaling that Trump's support in "fly-over" country is stronger than most polling has indicated.

The final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll of the 2020 election season found that Trump leads Biden by a whopping seven points ahead of Election Day, 48% to 41%.

Among the remaining respondents, 3% said they were voting for someone other than Trump or Biden, 2% said they were undetermined, and 5% did not want to reveal which candidate they support.

The poll is conducted by the highly-respected Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, and is known as the "gold standard" of political polls.

What is most significant about the poll is that, just several weeks ago, the same survey found that Trump and Biden were tied in Iowa at 47% each.

According to J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., Trump is once again winning over independents, which explains the significant bump in his support in Iowa.

"The president is holding demographic groups that he won in Iowa four years ago, and that would give someone a certain level of comfort with their standing," Selzer explained, the Des Moines Register reported. "There's a consistent story in 2020 to what happened in 2016."

"I think that the key to what's happening with President Trump is that he is leading with independents," she added. "That is a group that in Iowa in our September poll looked like it was swinging to Joe Biden, and it's come back to be a Trump asset."

Selzer said the gender gap — in which men are more likely to support Trump and women more likely to support Biden — has also narrowed in Trump's favor.