What Does The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election Look Like?

[skmo]

The 2020 U.S. Presidential election is, sadly, upon us. What do you think it'll look like?

For good or for bad (more like for bad or for really, really bad) the (R) nominee is almost assuredly going to be Donald Trump, known to demonrats as "Orange Man Bad" and to most others as the most divisive president in our lifetime.

What about for the (D) Party? Who do you think they'll put on their banner? Consider your responses to the following questions:

Who will the (D) Party choose?
Will their nominee be able to beat Trump?
Who would you like to see the (D) Party put up, and do you think THAT person could beat Trump?
Who do you think has the best chance to de-throne Trump?

I've done a poll, but since it's limited I've included the top candidates to date, and an "Other" option. If you select that, please tell us who you think of.

I've made the poll so people can change their votes, but if you do, please tell us who you switched and why.

[skmo]

Here's my take on this gang of thieves:
Elizabeth "Pocahontas" Warren
Bernie "Commie" Sanders
Joe "Grandpa Gaffe" Biden
Kamala "hildabeast jr." Harris
Cory "Single-Cell Organism" Booker
Amy "Temper-Tantrum" Klobuchar
Kirsten "The Apologizer" Gillibrand
Pete "Putting the Butt in Buttigieg" Buttigieg
Beto "Skater Dude (as opposed to drunk driver)" O'Rourke
Tulsi "An Actual Threat" Gabbard
Andrew "Too Much Sense To Be A Demonrat" Yang
John "Lickenhooper The Stoner" Hickenlooper
Julian "Fidel's Love Child" Castro
Marianne "The Hippie Grandma" Wilson

[abijah]

Democrats would have a better chance with a good electable darkhorse candidate out of nowhere, kind of like how Obama was.

[skmo]

I think Kamala Harris will get it,. The only things she's missing in the leftist hierarchy of virtue is that she's not trans or gay. However, as a non-white female she ranks higher on the victimology scale that leftists seem to value so greatly. Add in that she's also VERY well connected to corporate deep pockets, she may just slip by Pocahontas and Gramps Gaffer. Biden is so stupid he's sure to say SOMETHING that'll remind America of his time as Obama's stooge. I think people are going to see Pocahontas is already too much of a Wall Street agent and fairly prone to exaggerate.

If they put up Grandma Hippie, Marianne Wilson it could be fun to see her have the demonrat convention be a sit-in love fest with patchouli and daisies in everyone's hair, but it might be good for a laugh.

Tulsi is the dark horse. I think she might be the most likely one to be a threat to Trump. She's not a hugely known name, in today's era of people being disgusted with politicians, that's a plus. She comes across as more moderate and sensible in some of her positions, so I think she could siphon off some of the swing voters. Her being a veteran would help her, too. Fortunately I don't see her getting the nomination.

[nightlight]

Democrat will win

[Lord of my dogs]

[BeNotDeceived]

Fire 2020

Ice Cube, but not icy cubes cubed 2024.

[Fiannan]

Democrats would have a better chance with a good electable darkhorse candidate out of nowhere, kind of like how Obama was.

Yeah, but there may be birthplace issues and such.

[pho·to·syn·the·sis]

Tulsi is the dark horse. I think she might be the most likely one to be a threat to Trump.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020- ... rd-n964261

Seriously? Russia?...............Again?

[mahalanobis]

My thoughts:

First, Biden: The crazy left vote is split across too many candidates. This plays in Biden's favor. I think it COULD be him in the end, but it will come down to how quickly the other candidates drop out. The sooner the primary race drops to 2 people, the worse off Biden will be. His best bet is to somehow broker a way to keep that vote split.

I think Kamala Harris would be a shoe-in if she had a little charisma, but she leaves a lot to be desired. That kackle. I don't see her gaining much more momentum than she has now.

On policy, Bernie is the same as Warren. In this poker game, woman beats old white male. So I don't think it will be him. The longer he stays in, the more he helps Biden. So maybe he makes a play for VP on the hypothetical Biden ticket by making a deal to stay in to split the vote. Or maybe Warren makes the same play and Biden runs the table, eventually betraying one of them, or both of them.

Buttigieg would be a slam dunk if he had been a governor somewhere. Dark horse candidates come right out of the DNC playbook. Find someone who hasn't been in the spotlight very long who brings excitement. He's a media darling and the power of the LGBT machine should not be underestimated. However, he's just a mayor and isn't taken seriously by mainstream Democrats that have real jobs and life experience.

The rest are running for VP and/or boosting their resumes, and/or building up name recognition for next time around.

[Fiannan]

Buttigieg would be a slam dunk if he had been a governor somewhere.

I am not sure. Maybe gay relationships are what is hot with many Utah Mormons nowadays, but I am not so convinced in regards to the rest of the nation. Plus he is super liberal which would make it easy for Trump to beat.

First, Biden: The crazy left vote is split across too many candidates. This plays in Biden's favor.

Problem is, all Trump has to do is play recordings where Biden, just a few years ago, was...well...Trump.

I think Kamala Harris would be a shoe-in if she had a little charisma, but she leaves a lot to be desired.

She is liberal on all the social issues but also a typical corporate-supporting limo liberal. This will turn off Bernie supporters who are still furious over what happened to them in 2016 and then being expected to turn the other cheek and vote for Hillary. No enthusiasm for her.

As for Warren, she is a liberal, and has some sane policies (take down the social media giants for instance). Still, up against Trump and she will lose. She is still probably going to get psyched in debates after the whole fake Indian thing.

[BeNotDeceived]

Tulsi is the dark horse. I think she might be the most likely one to be a threat to Trump.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020- ... rd-n964261

Seriously? Russia?...............Again?

Marijuana, but not Cannabis does a girl good.

Prolly clueless, but not likely to not have any clues about OTEC.

[eddie]

It won't matter who they nominate, they will LOSE

[ori]

Trump will win.

[EmmaLee]

Unless Trump goes full retard with the gun thing, he will win against all those proposed in the OP. The only person on the planet who could possibly win against him right now would be Michael (AKA: Michelle) Obama.

[ShockHouse]

I echo what others have said, it doesn't matter. Trump is going to win.

[harakim]

I think it's one of:
1) Trump will win and the candidate will be selected to not shame one of the annointed (60%)
Most likely this. A woman or minority will do here (gads are pretty racist.) No Biden, probably no Sanders. Whoever wins will go on to do something they want as a reward.
2) Trump will lose because the communist utopia is about to be established (30%)
I would have said no way in 2004, but with how brazen the gads have been lately, especially about the end of freedom, it seems quite possible. If Sanders hadn't lost the last time, he would be a shoo-in for this role. They need someone crazy, but also "electable"
3) Trump will win and the candidate will be selected to give highest probability of civil war (10%)
Someone like AOC. I don't follow politics enough to know who that would be. Someone that people like personally, like Obama. They won't actually care about policies or experience at all here.


Option #2 or #3 is coming, it's just a matter of when. I'm starting to also lean towards the 2024 timeline.

[Matchmaker]

Condoleezza Rice will be the first female President of the USA! Trump probably will not run again. It will be his decision.

[mahalanobis]

Condoleezza Rice will be the first female President of the USA! Trump probably will not run again. It will be his decision.

Trump not running again is a interesting thought. Is there any specific reason you think so?

[gkearney]

Condoleezza Rice will be the first female President of the USA! Trump probably will not run again. It will be his decision.

Well that's interesting but not very likely I think. Donald Trump has way too big of an ego to not run again.

That said Grump faces a very difficult task before him. There are four, perhaps five states he carried in 2016 and which he must carry again. lose a couple of those and he loses the election no matter how well he does in all his other states. If he were to lose Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin or god forbid Florida then it all over for him. There just are not any states for him to pick up and all his trade war stuff is cutting into his margins in places like Iowa and similar marginal farm belt states as well.

Here are some maps: first up the 2016 map



Now lets flip Pennsylvania which is arguably his most venerable state.



Trump still wins but the margins grow smaller. Next we flip Michigan another venerable state.



Boy we are now in a near dead heat, If he were to lose just one other state he's toast. If he were were to loose the second congressional district in Maine or any one of the Nebraska congressional districts the whole election is sent to the House of Representative



But just one more state Wisconsin for example or any one of the Nebraska congressional seats as Nebraska, like Maine splits their electors up by congressional districts and it game over for Trump. Here are some maps:





Of course there is also the prospect of an election catastropy for Trump in the prospect of loosing Florida. Then the democrats need only one other state:



There are also several states that are in danger of flipping. Farm states like Iowa, places that have been shifting blue for some time like Arizona, states with emerging hispanic voter bases like Texas. Trump has to have everything, and I mean everything break his way in 2020 to be reelected if anything goes wrong, in particular the economy then the numbers in the Electoral college just don't add up for him. I would watch very closely the mood in the following states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin. I would also keep an eye on Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa, the Nebraska congressional electors and the Maine second district and of course Florida. Some observers say Texas might be in play as well but I rather doubt it. There could also be some outliers like Montana and the Dakotas. Any way you slice it however Trump has a very little wiggle room here because there's simply are no blue states he can win to replace any red ones the Democrats might flip. And this time he will not be running against one of the weakest opponents ever in Hillary Clinton either. The Democratic voter base is going to be looking for blood this time.

Trump could win by a massive landslide in most of the states he won in 2016 and the Democrats could just carry a handful of flipped states and Trump would, like Hillary Clinton, loose the election in the Electoral College. Oh watch Trump throw a fit if that were to happen.

[BeNotDeceived]

Condoleezza Rice will be the first female President of the USA! Trump probably will not run again. It will be his decision.

Rice, but not Tom.
Condoleezza, but not Cruise.

[Matchmaker]

Condoleezza Rice will be the first female President of the USA! Trump probably will not run again. It will be his decision.

Trump not running again is a interesting thought. Is there any specific reason you think so?

I think he's tired and wants to enjoy the last few years of his life doing something else. Besides, Condoleezza Rice is in the prime of her life now to run for the office of President.

[mahalanobis]

Condoleezza Rice will be the first female President of the USA! Trump probably will not run again. It will be his decision.

Trump not running again is a interesting thought. Is there any specific reason you think so?

I think he's tired and wants to enjoy the last few years of his life doing something else. Besides, Condoleezza Rice is in the prime of her life now to run for the office of President.

Not gonna lie. That would be a fantastic turn of events. The Democrats get all dolled up to run against Trump, then we swap candidates. Then we just point at all the crazy on the left.

I think Trump is too proud though.

[BeNotDeceived]

We are freaking out!

So says the dems.

Dumb , but not stupid Democrats

[ori]

Condoleezza Rice will be the first female President of the USA! Trump probably will not run again. It will be his decision.

Trump not running again is a interesting thought. Is there any specific reason you think so?

I think he's tired and wants to enjoy the last few years of his life doing something else. Besides, Condoleezza Rice is in the prime of her life now to run for the office of President.

I’d vote for her. But it won’t come to that.