my new % rule for ldsff

[cayenne]

I was thinking on here of how to have better discussions without it being "i am right, you are wrong"…."NO I am right and you are wrong" type of never ending pattern

The question is how many of us are really 100% sure in our posts? Be honest! I know I am well studied, but can only say I know something is true 100% on a few things. There are many things I am lets say 80 or 90% sure on. Others less than 50% etc.

So what happens on this forum all the time? Battles of I am right…..DONE!

I think from now on I am going to try posting the percentage of truth I believe I have on a certain matter. This way If I say I am 82% sure that such and such happened, if another person sees that but disagrees, they may be less inclined to be arrogant and on guard saying I am flat out wrong and they are right. Maybe they will say they too are 80% ish in the opposite belief. Atleast this way we have negotiating room and may find more truth.

I think we as people do a little study, and think BOOM we have 100% truth and are some great rabbi. It is human ridiculous. I don't know if anyone else wants to try this, but I think I will.

[diligently seeking]

http://mightychangeofheart.com/etmc/appendix/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I know I 110% love the experiences shared in this link! I know with a 110% of certainty that Christ longs for and will help facilitate achieving these experiences! Hallelujah! praise our gracious Savior! Let's live for it!

[captainfearnot]

Turns out, estimating how sure we are about the things we think we know is not something we're very good at.

The most common way in which overconfidence has been studied is by asking people how confident they are of specific beliefs they hold or answers they provide. The data show that confidence systematically exceeds accuracy, implying people are more sure that they are correct than they deserve to be. If human confidence had perfect calibration, judgments with 100% confidence would be correct 100% of the time, 90% confidence correct 90% of the time, and so on for the other levels of confidence. By contrast, the key finding is that confidence exceeds accuracy so long as the subject is answering hard questions about an unfamiliar topic. For example, in a spelling task, subjects were correct about 80% of the time, whereas they claimed to be 100% certain. Put another way, the error rate was 20% when subjects expected it to be 0%. In a series where subjects made true-or-false responses to general knowledge statements, they were overconfident at all levels. When they were 100% certain of their answer to a question, they were wrong 20% of the time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[creator]

My method for avoiding needless debate and contention is simply disengaging after I've said what I wanted to say. I have no interest in trying to convince someone I'm right. I'll share my opinion/belief and leave at that.. and sometimes make followup posts if there are sincere questions or if the conversation is moving in a direction where additional comments seem necessary.