2BFree wrote:So naturally, nothing will get done until it really is too late to do anything but something really draconian.
I would be interested to know your position on the predicted effects of AGW and as you seem to indicate in your postings believe that these effects are going to be drastic and bad. Do you believe that if the world doesn't reduce the CO2 levels some how that the consequences will be as awful as Al Gore and other AGW proponents have said? As a conservative per your own admission and a true believer in AGW, what would you suggest we do to correct this progression to global annihilation from CO2 and increased global temperatures? What about all the other greenhouse gases like water vapor which is the largest greenhouse gas we have? Can you tell me why the scientists and AGW proponents have focused on CO2 when it is such a small percentage of all the other greenhouse gases that are much more prevalent in the atmosphere?
Hi 2B,
Scientists can't predict what the exact effects will be--they can only give a distribution of probabilities. (I.e., "there's a 20% chance of this outcome, a 50% chance of this kind of outcome, a 2% chance of this other one, etc.) The most likely scenarios seem to be pretty darn bad, but naturally, Al Gore sometimes focused on the more extreme outcomes with lower probabilities. On the one hand, you can't ignore those, but I don't think it's right to only focus on them. On the other hand, you seem to want to exaggerate even what Gore said--"progression to global annihilation."
The best proposal I've seen so far for U.S. policy is a "carbon tax swap" proposed by Rep. Bob Ingliss. You institute a carbon tax that ramps up every year, but you don't let that increase government revenues. Instead, you simply use it to replace some of the income and payroll taxes. I'm sure there are details that would have to be worked out to make it fair, but on its face it looks like a decent way to incentivize switching to other energy sources without further bloating the government.
Thanks for asking about why scientists focus on CO2. Here's the deal. Climate scientists DO take all the greenhouse gases into account, including methane, CFCs, oxides of nitrogen, and so on. Leaving aside water vapor (which is a special case,) CO2 is the most abundant. Some of the others (like methane and CFCs) are more powerful in terms of how much radiation each molecule absorbs, but there isn't nearly as much of them up there. If you go look in the latest IPCC report, you will find a table with all the greenhouse gases, along with estimates of their warming potential given the current concentrations.
Water vapor is BY FAR the most abundant greenhouse gas, but it is limited with respect to its ability to cause "global warming" on its own. That's because, given a certain temperature, the air can only hold so much water vapor before it condenses into clouds and falls out as precipitation. So if we all ran our sprinklers all the time, lots of extra water vapor would go into the air, but it couldn't cause any long-term warming because it would soon come back out of the air.
But what if SOMETHING ELSE (like changes in solar radiation, extra greenhouse gases other than water, etc.) caused it to warm? At the new temperature, more water vapor could fit into the air without condensing, so this would cause even further warming. This is one of the "positive feedbacks" that are thought to enhance warming or cooling trends caused by the Sun, CO2, etc. (There are some negative feedbacks, too, but the positive ones are thought to be dominant.) You see, not only do climate scientists NOT ignore water vapor, it's actually an important reason they think pumping massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere will have such a large effect.
Please, just take a step back, now, and ask yourself some hard questions. Clearly this business about water vapor is a red herring. "Look at the shiny distraction!" Why would someone try to convince you that the climate scientists are stupid hacks based on something as obviously wrong as that? Since it's so obviously wrong to anyone who knows anything about climate models, and since it's such a common objection among "skeptics," why don't the more informed "skeptics" (like Anthony Watts, whom you seem to like) try to correct this misinformation? You only need elementary school science to understand it, after all.
If you are actually curious about how scientists would answer common objections like these, I recommend browsing around this site:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;