Is the dollar terminal?

[Rincon]

Removed

[Original_Intent]

Well there are two opposing schools of thought there.

Our own Jason, as well as others provide a very convincing argument for deflation. If this is the case you WANT dollars. I have actually been brought around to this way of thinking, at least in the short term.

The other argument is hyperinflation. I used to strongly be in this camp, and I still believe long term this is going to happen. I am just now convinced it will come after a period of a few years of deflation. Probably the biggest reason I do not subscribe to immediate hyperinflation is because the prophets have told us to get out of debt. In hyperinflation you actually want to be in debt as much as possible. Also, we are actually experienceing deflation due to credit tightening. So I think we will see deflation and as many homes foreclosed and other items repossesed by creditors as possible. Once this squeeze period is over and most people have lost everything then I think hyperinflation is the order of the day.

So what to do?

Well, you follow the prophet's counsel. Get out of ALL debt. Food storage and other preparations for rough times. After food shelter and clothing the next item on the heiracrchy of needs is security. For me that means guns, ammo and trianing, having good relationships with your neighbors, helping them to be as prepared as possible, and knowing that you can trust them to cover your six and being willing to cover theirs. It also means developing the needed skills to provide a valuable good or service for your community, to be able to contribute something to help your community be self sufficient if possible. For some people security means heading to the hills or setting up new communities that are more set up on Zion principles, or being ready to be called out to "tent cities". We each need to prayerfully determine what preparations we need to make for our family.

[Rincon]

Removed

[Original_Intent]

I think there is a thread entitled "inflation vs. deflation" which has a lot of good info. If you ever have about a month to browse, check out the "Blipits" thread which is almost exclusively Jason putting up absolutely massive amounts of good information.

http://www.ldsfreedomforum.com/viewtopi ... +deflation

http://www.ldsfreedomforum.com/viewtopi ... =20&t=9376 (Blipits)

[infowarrior]

From my own understanding we are experiencing a deflation in the prices of goods, but a steady inflation in the dollar itself which has been happening for some years now. If you are out of debt and have some money left after acquiring food storage and other preparation needs, then buying Gold/Silver can't hurt. Better to be safe than sorry. Its my ace in the whole. Besides I'm not looking at Gold/Silver as an investment rather to preserve my wealth. Regardless of what the Dollar does my Gold/Silver will be worth something and its tangible!

[Nan]

There is not deflation in the area of food. Some meat has gone up a dollar a pound in the last year. This is concerning to be because it is a basic need. The most brutal thing would be to have deflation in the area of comforts, but inflation in the basic needs area. Especially as we have more unemployment and wages go down.

[JMarsigli]

I was also an early "deflationista" on here, but don't think it'll last forever. I've got a roughly 4 year horizon, based almost entirely on the number of excess housing. After that's burned off then we can more easily add back jobs at a rate faster than population growth. This glut removal may combine nicely with a stronger foundation built from 1. state governments reigning in spending, 2. Households repairing balance sheets, 3. Cheaper homes providing a strong foundation for new family units, and 4. A long needed economic restructuring that hopefully retrains many in the workforce. If this plays out without debt swallowing us up then we may start the party all over again in 4-5 years or so. That's what the cycle has done many times over now.

With this said, I prefer a reserve fund of at least six months in cash, c.d.'s or short term treasuries. It has to be liquid, accessible, and mostly immune to interest rate risk (keep duration short, or buy insured c.d.'s with low early withdrawal penalties--3 months interest is common). After that, if you have a mortgage then holding cash won't hurt you as long as it's lower than your mortgage. If that's the case then you'll gain more from inflation erasing your debt than you'll lose from inflation eating up your savings.

If you're out of debt then I start talking investments. Oil companies and stock in other financial stable companies with good management should serve you well... if you buy them at the right price.

[Jason]

I was also an early "deflationista" on here, but don't think it'll last forever. I've got a roughly 4 year horizon, based almost entirely on the number of excess housing. After that's burned off then we can more easily add back jobs at a rate faster than population growth. This glut removal may combine nicely with a stronger foundation built from 1. state governments reigning in spending, 2. Households repairing balance sheets, 3. Cheaper homes providing a strong foundation for new family units, and 4. A long needed economic restructuring that hopefully retrains many in the workforce. If this plays out without debt swallowing us up then we may start the party all over again in 4-5 years or so. That's what the cycle has done many times over now.

With this said, I prefer a reserve fund of at least six months in cash, c.d.'s or short term treasuries. It has to be liquid, accessible, and mostly immune to interest rate risk (keep duration short, or buy insured c.d.'s with low early withdrawal penalties--3 months interest is common). After that, if you have a mortgage then holding cash won't hurt you as long as it's lower than your mortgage. If that's the case then you'll gain more from inflation erasing your debt than you'll lose from inflation eating up your savings.

If you're out of debt then I start talking investments. Oil companies and stock in other financial stable companies with good management should serve you well... if you buy them at the right price.

Unfortunately this isn't one of those 4 to 5 year cycles nor even 12 to 15 year cycles nor even 25 to 30 year cycles. This is debt saturation! We hit it in the mid 90's and Greenspan unleashed the Sweeps program (average demand deposit balance - i.e. checking account, swept into a saving account and loaned out). We hit it again 5 years later and Greenspan took interest rates to 45-50 year low - below the rate of inflation (people would be absolutely stupid not to bury themselves in debt). Insert debt gavage! Interest rates are now back down to 50 year lows....but banks aren't lending and borrowers (those who can) aren't borrowing. Its called debt saturation!

Cash only....banks are junk! If its in a bank its not liquid or accessible when you will need it most!

Equities are garbage! The Fed is dumping $10 to $20 billion a week now into the market to keep it up (POMO & PPT). Saudi killed 1/3 of their oil production to keep prices high. You would be an absolute idiot to trust anyone in Wall Street (or associated with) right now! Keep your money close to home and Be Careful & Cautious! Too many thieves right now and the worst ones wear suits!



....my key take away....."let it down slowly"....fyi - this is the Europe version - you would never see anything this candid in the US on MSM.

According to Bloomberg, the latest ratio of insider selling to buying was 1,411 to 1. Let us repeat: 1,411 to 1. Needless to say, corporate insiders are totally buying the Fed reflation story, and the economic recovery. Like, totally.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/inside ... ses-1400-1

Hyperinflation will happen when either one or both of two things happen 1) the Fed gives out debt free money in sufficient quantities to not only negate but surpass by several multiples the interest effect and credit contraction; 2) the Fed/government collapses - faith in the currency goes by by (no need for their money to pay their taxes).

I don't expect #1 although Japan did that (zero percent interest rates) but in limited small quantities over time thus still going through 10 years of deflation (transfer of wealth) and is still buried in debt (actually increased their debt by several magnitudes) with no current feasible solution on the horizon. #2 is a possibility but currently the government is only getting stronger and in all likelihood when #2 does occur it will proceed the 2nd coming. This will imo occur quite rapidly (Nephites & Lamanites went through 3 hour transformation period then had 3 days to ponder it in darkness). Imagine having your whole world turned upside down between lunch and dinner. Should this be the case or something similar with even longer time periods stretching out to days, weeks, or even months......you still won't have much of a chance to cash in on your hyperinflation hedges if they be things that really aren't that useful (don't produce like farms, gardens, greenhouses, equipment, tools, etc.) like gold, silver, etc. Ultimately gold is a replacement for asphalt. Choose wisely!

Obviously this is all just my opinion...take it for whatever its worth. I have no crystal ball!

Yes, refinancings-which have been running at around 80 percent of all mortgage applications-fell despite a new record low average rate on the 30-year fixed of 4.38 percent. Not so good. But on the other hand, purchase applications rose 2.4 percent, largely driven by a 4.5 percent increase in government purchase applications (FHA).

Great, except for that last part.

Government purchase applications have been driving the market for the past year, accounting for, at times, nearly half of all new loans. That may be about to change. New premium authority (translation: higher prices) goes into effect next week, on Oct. 4. New seller concessions policies are about to go into effect as well.

"Unless you have near perfect credit and a substantial down payment, FHA is still the only game in town for a large number of Americans," notes Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance.

Mortgage-purchase applications are 32 percent lower than they were last year, and they weren't great last year. While still the cheapest game in town, FHA loans are about to get more expensive, and that's going to knock the numbers down yet again.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Is-Govern ... et=&ccode=

21st Sequential Weekly Outflow Confirms Investors Refuse To Be Suckered Into Stock Market

The massive, and completely unjustified, September ramp in stocks has done nothing to restore investor faith in a broken market: ICI has just reported that in the week ended September 22, domestic equity mutual funds saw a 21st sequential outflow of $2.5 billion, bringing the total Year To Date to over $70 billion. And here is the kicker: the programmed stock rally in September which was supposed to "restore" confidence in the market, has resulted in $16 billion worth of September... outflows. Congratulations New York Fed, NYSE, Getco, Goldman, and, of course, SEC. You have totally killed any hope of restoring market confidence. Which brings us to an interesting question: if Brian Sacks ramps the DJIA to 36,000 on tomorrow's POMO, and nobody noticed or cared, did Brian Sack ramp the market up?

Also, according to ICI's latest flow Trend tracker, total cash at mutual funds has just barely budged in August, creeping up to 3.5% from 3.4% in July, and 4% a year earlier. But the scariest number is the annual redemptions from stock funds, which as of August 2010 have hit a multi-year high of 25.8%, a number that has risen progressively from the 23.6% a year earlier.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/21st-w ... red-market

Median Household Income Is Falling In Almost Every Single Major American City
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archiv ... rican-city

Plundering the middle class – 35 percent of American households live on $35,000 or less each year. Bailouts a success for the wealthiest 5 percent of Americans.
http://www.mybudget360.com/plundering-t ... 0-or-less/

[JMarsigli]

I agree on the debt saturation, that's why it's gonna be a tough slog. I laughed yesterday reading Ken Fisher's ultra-bullish comments and denigrating PIMCO's "New Normal". I laughed because I recall him saying a year or two ago that we could go to 500% debt:GDP, similar to what the UK has done.

Where I disagree with you is that we appear to have stabilized. If the population wasn't growing, and if the developing world wasn't pressing demand up, then I'd probably be on board with you. However, we've stabilized at 10+/- unemployment (based on your favorite U), and should add to the work pool at the rate of population growth. That's a slow slog, but it's growth none-the-less. The big issue is we're basically going to leave behind the unskilled workers we call "chronically unemployed". We'll get used to high employment for a few years. When the construction industry returns, sometime after 4-6+ million excess homes are sold off, then the lower skilled labor will be pulled back into the growing economy.

I quit reading zero hedge when it became to narrow focused. They didn't seem to care about any of the positives such as: part time employment skyrocketing, JOLTS data, private pay keeps going up, up, up, and average weekly work hours has improved significantly. The bottom line is Americans are making more this year than last, and the year before that. That's a good thing for the average American, and encourages me on our future.

If it's the end of the world then you'll be right and I'll be wrong. I'd rather prepare for the future that has been right for the last 2600+ years rather than a one time event.

[Spence]

Savings options in order of importance:

Getting out of Debt; Years Supply; Farmable Land; Gold, Silver

Who cares if you have X amount of dollars in a 401k if you have X amount of dollars in debt. Who cares if you have X ounces of gold and silver if you don't have any land which you can cultivate for your needs.

Land and Gold would be the only two options I would put savings into if I had the previous covered. Personally, I invested a bit in gold and silver, up already 20% in 6 months until I have enough saved to buy some land. But I am early in life, in my mid-twenties. So things should be different for everyone.

Then again, I am not looking to get rich, rather but keep what I have. So my philosophy probably won't appeal to everyone.

[Chip45]

I remember reading the book, "Bankruptcy 1995" when it projected that when U.S. gov't debt reached $5.5 Trillion, the graph would go "hockey-stick" and faith in the "dollar" would evaporate and all would collapse. The book came out before 1995. 1995 came and went and out debt has screamed to almost 3 times that much and while things are worse and more people are certainly suffering ... collapse has yet to occur.

However, the $13 trillion gov't debt recognized ignores the much larger detb when one takes in social security, medicare, etc. That debt then explodes to over $50 trillion, at least according to the former head of the congressional budget office. Then take into these creative debt instruments and the debt picture expands even more.

Bottomline, such debt can not be ignored forever. It cannot be paid off without a combination of three things, 1- default on promises, 2-higher taxs, 3-monetization (i.e inflation and hyperinflation).

Whether or not we experience deflationary forces or inflationary forces, or a combination of both in varying parts of the economy, we all must realize there is no painless way out of this mess.

Further, there just might be, just maybe ... people and organizations in powerful positions that conclude our American standard of living is in the way of their global governance agenda and they fool many other "useless feeders" that our standard of living is "unsustainable" and threatens "mother earth" and must therefore be reduced.

Such people/organizations may just be at work to try (just maybe) to create a financial crisis and use it to guide the nation into that lower standard of living so that we can all be merged together in a global socialist anthill and taught to love our enslavement.

Sadly, I think the odds are in their favor. Time will tell. I'm old enough that I have never known such a time for such major changes over such a short period of time.

[Col. Flagg]

I remember reading the book, "Bankruptcy 1995" when it projected that when U.S. gov't debt reached $5.5 Trillion, the graph would go "hockey-stick" and faith in the "dollar" would evaporate and all would collapse. The book came out before 1995. 1995 came and went and out debt has screamed to almost 3 times that much and while things are worse and more people are certainly suffering ... collapse has yet to occur.

However, the $13 trillion gov't debt recognized ignores the much larger detb when one takes in social security, medicare, etc. That debt then explodes to over $50 trillion, at least according to the former head of the congressional budget office. Then take into these creative debt instruments and the debt picture expands even more.

Bottomline, such debt can not be ignored forever. It cannot be paid off without a combination of three things, 1- default on promises, 2-higher taxs, 3-monetization (i.e inflation and hyperinflation).

Whether or not we experience deflationary forces or inflationary forces, or a combination of both in varying parts of the economy, we all must realize there is no painless way out of this mess.

Further, there just might be, just maybe ... people and organizations in powerful positions that conclude our American standard of living is in the way of their global governance agenda and they fool many other "useless feeders" that our standard of living is "unsustainable" and threatens "mother earth" and must therefore be reduced.

Such people/organizations may just be at work to try (just maybe) to create a financial crisis and use it to guide the nation into that lower standard of living so that we can all be merged together in a global socialist anthill and taught to love our enslavement.

Sadly, I think the odds are in their favor. Time will tell. I'm old enough that I have never known such a time for such major changes over such a short period of time.

Chip, I think I know you... by chance do you live in Springville?

[Jason]

I agree on the debt saturation, that's why it's gonna be a tough slog. I laughed yesterday reading Ken Fisher's ultra-bullish comments and denigrating PIMCO's "New Normal". I laughed because I recall him saying a year or two ago that we could go to 500% debt:GDP, similar to what the UK has done.

Where I disagree with you is that we appear to have stabilized. If the population wasn't growing, and if the developing world wasn't pressing demand up, then I'd probably be on board with you. However, we've stabilized at 10+/- unemployment (based on your favorite U), and should add to the work pool at the rate of population growth. That's a slow slog, but it's growth none-the-less. The big issue is we're basically going to leave behind the unskilled workers we call "chronically unemployed". We'll get used to high employment for a few years. When the construction industry returns, sometime after 4-6+ million excess homes are sold off, then the lower skilled labor will be pulled back into the growing economy.

I quit reading zero hedge when it became to narrow focused. They didn't seem to care about any of the positives such as: part time employment skyrocketing, JOLTS data, private pay keeps going up, up, up, and average weekly work hours has improved significantly. The bottom line is Americans are making more this year than last, and the year before that. That's a good thing for the average American, and encourages me on our future.

If it's the end of the world then you'll be right and I'll be wrong. I'd rather prepare for the future that has been right for the last 2600+ years rather than a one time event.

Bold and Underline mine

"Appear" is very applicable terminology. Appearances can be deceiving and in this case they most certainly are. We are still spiraling down despite government claims. Summer is seasonally better than winter. This summer we've been flat and now unemployment is beginning to ramp up again earlier than last year. Last year didn't get going until after Halloween then really shot off after Black Friday - a dismal season. This year will be worse. The market is only up because of Fed/banking manipulation and injections. They've killed the shorts thus taking out potential floors. When it collapses now it will go to zero.

Zero Hedge is the best financial news site on the web....if you want the real scoop and are willing to wade through the unconstrained coarse vernacular/behavior of those that participate. I have no clue where you get your information as private pay is not going up but now on average about half of government pay. fyi - not long ago that situation was completely reversed. Even the government's own numbers don't agree with your BS (belief system).

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archiv ... rican-city

Best be preparing to meet Jesus as that is what is shortly about to come to pass!

Here are a few more reality links....and the source of those part-time jobs (Census) -

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/ ... ed+Risk%29

http://www.bankreorealestate.com/indust ... bonds.html

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... nalysis%29

[Rincon]

Removed

[Original_Intent]

They didn't seem to care about any of the positives such as: part time employment skyrocketing

Part time employment skyrocketing is hardly good news. A person loses a full time job and gets two part time jobs. Even assuming he is making the same hourly rate (higly unlikely in this economy) He has probably lost all of his benefits. So, again, if you take a best case scenario, He is working the same hours, making the same money, is responsible for his own soon-to-be-mandated health insurance, plus loss of most if not all other benefits. This doesn't sound like good news, this isn't even "glass half full", this is another step toward complete enslavement by serfdom.
And then get reall and say the hourly amount is probably half what he made in his full time job, and it isn't just a step, it just about completes the journey.

[JMarsigli]

Savings options in order of importance:

Getting out of Debt; Years Supply; Farmable Land; Gold, Silver

Who cares if you have X amount of dollars in a 401k if you have X amount of dollars in debt. Who cares if you have X ounces of gold and silver if you don't have any land which you can cultivate for your needs.

Land and Gold would be the only two options I would put savings into if I had the previous covered. Personally, I invested a bit in gold and silver, up already 20% in 6 months until I have enough saved to buy some land. But I am early in life, in my mid-twenties. So things should be different for everyone.

Then again, I am not looking to get rich, rather but keep what I have. So my philosophy probably won't appeal to everyone.

Please clarify your ideas here. It comes across that you are making the stone aged argument to shun the gifts God has given us, refuse to advance society for the betterment of all, and grow some maize while burying gold and feaking out about impending doom. I'm sure this is not what you're saying, but that's the way it could come across.

Personally, I would choose to invest my surplus into stocks of good companies that serve society well.

[JMarsigli]

They didn't seem to care about any of the positives such as: part time employment skyrocketing

Part time employment skyrocketing is hardly good news. A person loses a full time job and gets two part time jobs. Even assuming he is making the same hourly rate (higly unlikely in this economy) He has probably lost all of his benefits. So, again, if you take a best case scenario, He is working the same hours, making the same money, is responsible for his own soon-to-be-mandated health insurance, plus loss of most if not all other benefits. This doesn't sound like good news, this isn't even "glass half full", this is another step toward complete enslavement by serfdom.
And then get reall and say the hourly amount is probably half what he made in his full time job, and it isn't just a step, it just about completes the journey.

Seriously OI? Please get a little education before knee-jerking to my posts. Historically, part time unemployment rising is a leading indicator of the economy coming out of a recession. It means businesses are hiring because demand for their products is improving. Why don't you start asking questions you know nothing about instead of jumping the gun like a 16 year old know it all? I hate to be blunt, but it gets a little old.

[InfoWarrior82]

Demand for Big-Macs, grocery store baggers, and gas station attendants is improving?! Sweet! Looks like it's smooth sailing from here! 8)

[JMarsigli]

"Appear" is very applicable terminology. Appearances can be deceiving and in this case they most certainly are.

Everything economics is "appear". If you want to go down that road then you might as well say everything we're saying is speculation and there's no point in any of it.

We are still spiraling down despite government claims.

That's nothing more than a wild, unsubstantiated, and radical claim.

Summer is seasonally better than winter. This summer we've been flat and now unemployment is beginning to ramp up again earlier than last year. Last year didn't get going until after Halloween then really shot off after Black Friday - a dismal season. This year will be worse. The market is only up because of Fed/banking manipulation and injections. They've killed the shorts thus taking out potential floors. When it collapses now it will go to zero.

Give me a time frame and we'll see who ends up right. My money is where my mouth is, with documented advice. "We're all going to die" histeria is all I read here. That's done nothing but scare good people away from sound financial planning. Putting it all on "go to zero" is a situation that has allowed the fear mongerers power over the fearful.

Zero Hedge is the best financial news site on the web....if you want the real scoop and are willing to wade through the unconstrained coarse vernacular/behavior of those that participate.

It has interesting ideas, ocasionally.

I have no clue where you get your information as private pay is not going up but now on average about half of government pay. fyi - not long ago that situation was completely reversed. Even the government's own numbers don't agree with your BS (belief system).

I'm getting the impression you wouldn't believe any "official" numbers no matter what. I guess the tens of thousands of private professionals are in on some gigantic conspiracy alongside thousands of their government counterparts.

Best be preparing to meet Jesus as that is what is shortly about to come to pass!

I didn't know you are a prophet. Which one? When did you receive the power of a revelation? *************FALSE PROPHET WARNING*****************

[JMarsigli]

Demand for Big-Macs, grocery store baggers, and gas station attendants is improving?! Sweet! Looks like it's smooth sailing from here! 8)

Defeatists never built anything. What are you doing to make it better? Get back behind the dumpster.

[Original_Intent]

They didn't seem to care about any of the positives such as: part time employment skyrocketing

Part time employment skyrocketing is hardly good news. A person loses a full time job and gets two part time jobs. Even assuming he is making the same hourly rate (higly unlikely in this economy) He has probably lost all of his benefits. So, again, if you take a best case scenario, He is working the same hours, making the same money, is responsible for his own soon-to-be-mandated health insurance, plus loss of most if not all other benefits. This doesn't sound like good news, this isn't even "glass half full", this is another step toward complete enslavement by serfdom.
And then get reall and say the hourly amount is probably half what he made in his full time job, and it isn't just a step, it just about completes the journey.

Seriously OI? Please get a little education before knee-jerking to my posts. Historically, part time unemployment rising is a leading indicator of the economy coming out of a recession. It means businesses are hiring because demand for their products is improving. Why don't you start asking questions you know nothing about instead of jumping the gun like a 16 year old know it all? I hate to be blunt, but it gets a little old.

Whoa. And you complain in the other thread about others treating you in an un-Christian way? Once again pot calling the kettle black itis rears its ugly head.

So I just did a Google on "part time employment as an economic indicator". And the top article that discussed the issue (it was the third link returned by Google, so if you want to enter the same terms and see if I was cherry picking, please do so. I didn't go to the first two links because they did not seem to address the question.)

So here is what Business World Online had to say about it.

Rise in part-time jobs tied to economic downturn episodes
LABOR MARKET trends in the past 10 years indicate that more Filipinos seek part-time jobs as unemployment looms during recessions, according to a Bureau of Labor and Employment Statistics (BLES) report released last week.

Experts said that employment quality in the country suffered since the Asian financial crisis as more Filipinos work on a part-time basis with poor pay to cope with crises.

The BLES report suggested that an expansion in part-time employment and a corresponding downturn in full-time employment were associated with an economic slowdown.

In a phone interview, Raul V. Fabella, a labor economist at the University of the Philippines School of Economics, said the “unavailability of full-time jobs result in acceptance of low paying part-time jobs.”

Part-time jobs do not entail long-term responsibilities for the employers like health insurance and pension plans. These enable employers to access “cheaper labor”.

At the height of the US financial meltdown and global recession, from 2008 to 2009, employment in the Philippines grew by 2.9%, despite the slowdown in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 1.1% from 3.7% the year prior. But this growth in employment can be attributed almost entirely to an 8.4% increase in the ranks of part-time workers, while full-time employment essentially fell by 0.5%.

The same can be noted during the 1998 collapse of Asian financial markets when the country’s GDP fell by 0.6%, and unemployment rate reached 10.3%. That year, the country’s overall employment rose by 1.0%, driven by a 6.1% boost in part-time employment.

By 2001, the country’s employed workforce grew by 6.2%, despite a period of political turmoil that culminated in another people power during the year’s first quarter, which further weighed down on the economy amid a global economic slowdown.

During the 1998-2009 period, part-time employment growth rate hit its peak in 2001 at 21.2%, pulling-up employment rate even with a 2.1% decrease in the number of full-time workers.

Part-time jobs are largely coping mechanisms. Given hard times, employers have the tendency to hire more part-time workers to reduce costs.

“These [part-time jobs] make the two ends of the labor market meet -- people who want to find jobs, and employers who want to cut costs,” Mr. Fabella said.

Mr. Fabella also noted that these workers do not intend to stay at these jobs until better times come. However, some retail giants and food chains continue to hire part-time workers even after recessions, because it entails lesser wage costs.

In another BLES report released February this year, the total number of non-regular workers, which includes casual, seasonal, contractual or project based workers, and paid apprentices ñ all in non-agricultural establishments — increased by 16.4% from 2004 to 2008, before the financial crisis hit.

Benefits such as health insurance and company loans are lifted for non-regular workers. Paid sick leaves and social security, however, are only provided through company discretion. This shows the quality of work available for the majority of Filipinos.

Hiring of non-regular workers lowers the cost of doing business as it makes the labor market more flexible.

“During economic downturn, they [employers] can shed off workers easily and hire workers easily when the economy recovers,” Mr. Fabella said.

The adverse effect, however, is that firms may not invest in human capital, he added.

In a separate interview, Director General Vicente del Rosario Leogardo, Jr. of the Employers Confederation of the Philippines (ECoP) said, “based on the BLES’ previous surveys, many of the high level skilled occupations remain hard to fill, because the number of unqualified workers is high.”

This results in firms hiring non-regular low-level skilled workers, furthermore weakening workers’ bargaining power, as the presence of labor unions has waned.

Part-time and contractual workers are “most vulnerable to abuse and exploitation,” said labor group Trade Union Congress of the Philippines (TUCP).

“Economic crisis or not, employers prefer to hire contractual or part-time workers, not more as a coping mechanism, but to escape payment of benefits, including those stipulated in the law, and reduction of labor standards,” Rafael E. Mapalo, TUCP director for education, told BusinessWorld in an email.

“This is also a calculated way and an efficient strategy for employers to evade the formation of trade unions,” he added.

Still, for now, the case is that many people hold on to part-time jobs.

“Part-time work is better than no work at all,” Mr. Fabella commented.

Wow. I should write for these guys, I mean they practically ticked off the points I made. See, I think you are the one that needs to get an education as you like to call people out, and then disappear for months when they return the favor. But not before calling everybody "mean" and "unChristian" for failing to recognize your clearly superior intellect and education.

Anyway, it is too bad. I really thought we were seeing a new and improved Jmarsigli based on some of your recent posts, but you quickly fall back into the same old patterns, the same tired and uninspired arguments. I will say your position that wage disparity was due to us being a meritocracy was a surprising breath of fresh air - I really would have expected you to go the socialist, class warfare route. Maybe you can be taught.

edit: p.s. I did not go in search of information to pwn you so badly, I'm sorry it turned out that way. See, I honestly thought I should take your advice and do some research, since I was basing my conclusions off of common sense instead of research. I thought what I had said made sense and was interested to see how and why rising part time employment was this great thing that everyone should be so happy about.

So, excuse me for being "mean spirited" and "unChristian". I apologize that the evidence makes you look like a ninny. Not my fault.

[JMarsigli]

You jumped the gun, knee-jerked, and put up some poorly thought out garbage in defense of your ideology. You follow that up with an article about Filipino economics? Puleez! Man up and admit your silly error. Admit you didn't know what you were talking about. Be honest, and then let's get on with it. Turn the OI ideology off and your brain on. Again, if you don't understand something then all you have to do is ask me. I'm more than happy to educate you. What I'm not willing to do is enter a destructive argument with someone that is interested in only defending an ideology (hint, that's self-righteousness), and cares not about the facts. Your "yeah, but" attempts at defending your ideology are disingenuous and dishonest. Now man up, be honest (mostly to yourself), and admit you flew off the hook without knowing what you were talking about.

[Jason]

The big issue is we're basically going to leave behind the unskilled workers we call "chronically unemployed". We'll get used to high employment for a few years. When the construction industry returns, sometime after 4-6+ million excess homes are sold off, then the lower skilled labor will be pulled back into the growing economy.

That retraining wouldn't be in Chinese would it?

[Original_Intent]

I admit that what I posted was an unresearched opinion. If you want to call that "knee-jerk", that is your opinion and you are entitled to it. You have yet to show any basis that rising part time employment is a cause for joy other than ad hominem attacks on me for disagreeing with you. The article I posted may be on Filipino economics, I told you how I came about it, I did not search for information to support my position, I searched for information on how part-time employment figures acted as an economic indicator. I did so in the spirit of "educating myself" as you suggested, and all of the data I found supported my position, not yours. So please assist in my education, and point me to information as to why rising part time employment is such a great thing. I ahve already explained why I think it is not a great thing, and posted supporting evidence for the thought. I hate to break it to you, but economic truths are universal - they may appear differnt under different circumstances, but the underlying laws are universal. The only thing that varies is our understanding or lack thereof.

I laid out what I thought, and why I thought it, and provided "expert" opinion supporting it. Your turn. Put up or shut up, and quit resorting to ridicule as your only communication tool.

The BLES report suggested that an expansion in part-time employment and a corresponding downturn in full-time employment were associated with an economic slowdown.

The point being, they are using the Filipino EXAMPLE as a CASE STUDY but they are using it to draw bigger conclusions. You know who the BLES is, correct? Why would they do a study on the Filipino economy and publish it in Business World Online? Is it possible they are implying that there are lessons to learn here, things that we can apply to our own situation? Again I ask you, provide a more credible source to back up YOUR ideas? A challenge I have yet to see you take. I'll own up, I posted an opinion that I hadn't really researched, but in that opinion I explained my thought process. When challenged to educate myself I did and shared what I had found. You, who are calling names and mocking me have yet to even explain why YOU think that rising part time jobs is a great thing, let alone giving any source material to back up the position. Your attitude on a great number of your posts is that you don't need supporting evidence, you yourself are the expert.

So quite simply, please explain your position, back it up with published evidence and we will see if it holds water. I don't care if your evidence is regarding eskimo economies, Haitian economies, or Martian economies. Just provide some evidence that backs up your position or admit that you have none.

[Jason]

"Appear" is very applicable terminology. Appearances can be deceiving and in this case they most certainly are.

Everything economics is "appear". If you want to go down that road then you might as well say everything we're saying is speculation and there's no point in any of it.

No there's a real world with real paychecks....or lack there of.

We are still spiraling down despite government claims.

That's nothing more than a wild, unsubstantiated, and radical claim.

No its easily verified and validated by the numbers - unemployment debt, credit contraction, cash flows, etc. But there is definitely a disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street - i.e. the cash flows and the perceived value of the paper (equity).

Summer is seasonally better than winter. This summer we've been flat and now unemployment is beginning to ramp up again earlier than last year. Last year didn't get going until after Halloween then really shot off after Black Friday - a dismal season. This year will be worse. The market is only up because of Fed/banking manipulation and injections. They've killed the shorts thus taking out potential floors. When it collapses now it will go to zero.

Give me a time frame and we'll see who ends up right. My money is where my mouth is, with documented advice. "We're all going to die" histeria is all I read here. That's done nothing but scare good people away from sound financial planning. Putting it all on "go to zero" is a situation that has allowed the fear mongerers power over the fearful.

You pick the time frame....the only thing I've been off on so far is the value of the exchanges since I underestimated the level of government injections.

Also we aren't all going to die.....but there will be some weeding!

The Fed has made it a go to zero situation. But if you like go ahead and invest in government motors....on the verge of selling it to China.

Zero Hedge is the best financial news site on the web....if you want the real scoop and are willing to wade through the unconstrained coarse vernacular/behavior of those that participate.

It has interesting ideas, ocasionally.

Doesn't surprise me one bit that you would view it that way based on your understanding of economics or lack thereof.

I have no clue where you get your information as private pay is not going up but now on average about half of government pay. fyi - not long ago that situation was completely reversed. Even the government's own numbers don't agree with your BS (belief system).

I'm getting the impression you wouldn't believe any "official" numbers no matter what. I guess the tens of thousands of private professionals are in on some gigantic conspiracy alongside thousands of their government counterparts.

Feel free to post a link to anyone that supports your BS (belief system).

Best be preparing to meet Jesus as that is what is shortly about to come to pass!

I didn't know you are a prophet. Which one? When did you receive the power of a revelation? *************FALSE PROPHET WARNING*****************

Read your scriptures! Watch and listen at general conference! .....or not! The choice is yours for better or worse!

Obviously you believe in the gadiantons so let me know how that works out for you......next time you see any of the Bush's or Clinton's (or representative puppets) in the cocaine parlor or the fudge room tell them I said adieus and best of luck with their master!