LDS Freedom Forum

Jason wrote:Great links! Thank you!!!

Sad thing is.....this is just the beginning!

Col. Flagg wrote:

Jason wrote:Great links! Thank you!!!

Sad thing is.....this is just the beginning!

Yep. Looks like that tropical depression just southeast of Cuba got upgraded overnight to a higher probability of becoming a tropical storm/hurricane soon.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Jason wrote:

Col. Flagg wrote:

Jason wrote:Great links! Thank you!!!

Sad thing is.....this is just the beginning!

Yep. Looks like that tropical depression just southeast of Cuba got upgraded overnight to a higher probability of becoming a tropical storm/hurricane soon.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Planes are going in for measurements today.....should know a lot more about the storm tomorrow...

jonwymore wrote:http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37841204/ns ... _the_gulf/

Now there is even more oil spewing out due to the remote sub damaging vents. The containment cap has been removed. They HOPE to re-install it later today.... Last time they said they hope to do something their ideas failed miserably. Looks like more and more and more and more oil is going to continue to leak. This spill is going to be HUGE!

As for the original question, yes it could ignite if its concentrated enough and an open flame hits it and burns for long enough. Oil mixed with water is inherently tricky to ignite

Col. Flagg wrote:

Jason wrote:

Col. Flagg wrote:Yep. Looks like that tropical depression just southeast of Cuba got upgraded overnight to a higher probability of becoming a tropical storm/hurricane soon.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Planes are going in for measurements today.....should know a lot more about the storm tomorrow...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1446.shtml?

Looks like she's forecast to become a hurricane within the next 36 hours or so.

NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Thursday afternoon, with Friday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air limited, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday, except for possible interaction with land. There is a low (less than 20% chance) of 93L becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean.

The elevated anomaly off the west coast of Africa will be the real concern later in the season, this is where the 'long run' tropical cyclones get started.

(Reuters) - Private forecaster Weather Services International (WSI) said on Tuesday its latest forecast called for a more active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

Forecasters at WSI are calling for 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five intense hurricanes of a category 3 or greater. The forecast adds two storms and one hurricane to a WSI prediction released in May.

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be as active as 2005 when a record four major hurricanes hit the United States, severely disrupting U.S. oil and natural gas operations along the Gulf of Mexico.

Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are "even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005,", said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford in a statement.

Col. Flagg wrote:

Jason wrote:Yep. Looks like that tropical depression just southeast of Cuba got upgraded overnight to a higher probability of becoming a tropical storm/hurricane soon.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Planes are going in for measurements today.....should know a lot more about the storm tomorrow...

Jason wrote:NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Thursday afternoon, with Friday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air limited, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday, except for possible interaction with land. There is a low (less than 20% chance) of 93L becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Col. Flagg wrote:

Col. Flagg wrote:

Jason wrote:Yep. Looks like that tropical depression just southeast of Cuba got upgraded overnight to a higher probability of becoming a tropical storm/hurricane soon.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Planes are going in for measurements today.....should know a lot more about the storm tomorrow...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1446.shtml?

Looks like she's forecast to become a hurricane within the next 36 hours or so.

Jason wrote:NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Thursday afternoon, with Friday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air limited, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday, except for possible interaction with land. There is a low (less than 20% chance) of 93L becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Jason, it's already a tropical storm.

Col. Flagg wrote:Here's an FAQ pdf file from NOAA RE the oil, storms and hurricanes for the Gulf...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanes_ ... tsheet.pdf

Will there be oil in the rain related to
a hurricane?
• No. Hurricanes draw water vapor from a large
area, much larger than the area covered by oil,
and rain is produced in clouds circulating
the hurricane.

sbsion wrote:after the hurricane, they need to post a few hundred thousand "NO SMOKING" signs

Col. Flagg wrote:Tropical storm Darby now a hurricane...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.

I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Jason wrote:Col - fyi: the reason for our discrepancy is we were talking about two different storms. 93L is the potential threat to the Gulf of Mexico.....and Hurricane Darby is on the other side in the Pacific...
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Natura ... &src=nhrss

Col. Flagg wrote:

Jason wrote:Col - fyi: the reason for our discrepancy is we were talking about two different storms. 93L is the potential threat to the Gulf of Mexico.....and Hurricane Darby is on the other side in the Pacific...
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Natura ... &src=nhrss

Thanks for the clarification Jason! There are actually three systems now threatening the Gulf... hurricane Darby (just south of Cuba), 93L and another tropical wave that has formed off the east coast of Africa.