Super Committee members get $83K in contributionsJason wrote:Part of the decline in debt is due to write-off....and not necessarily debt pay offs. Which as LIT has pointed out....isn't deflationary. Nor is it inflationary as the inflation already occurred with the origination of the debt and injection of the money into the system. Thus forgiveness of all debt (while retaining assets and ability to produce) would mean zero inflation or deflation. If more debt was incurred (we think we are good for another shot at bankruptcy)...then we would have inflation.Original_Intent wrote:I can give you Jason;s answer (correct me if I'm wrong, J-dawg) - "Speculation!"firend wrote:Jason, here is your quote from above:
"Haven't total debt levels in the US been declining since 2008???"
I assume this is part of deflationary rational. So then.......
How then was Gold under 1000 an ounce in 08 (i think part of the year it was in the 700's.
And Silver was as low as like 10 dollars.
Look at those medals now.........
How does well over double in Gold and over quadripple Silver figure in if US Debt is declining?
p.s. one think I like about you Jason is you always give good replies and answers
Yes indeed!
Arguing inflation/deflation is like arguing which way the Wizard of Oz is going to twist that dial he has his hand on.
He can win either way - he and his friends can be invested in equities and commodities, and win with a "twist" of inflation. He can short the market and win with a "twist" of deflation.
The best you can do is figure out what is going to be to the biggest advantage to the man with his hand on the knob - and even then good luck as he is a master of deception and giving false indications of his intentions.
Sort of. There are definitely things they can control like markets via large bets (for which they and they alone have the amounts to move the market in significant directions). But there are other things they do not control like us. Sure they can try to influence us....but the reality is I control whether I print money today, tomorrow, or the next day (although they can do it for me via government). They can raise or lower the cost of debt, they can play with credit scores, they can may even ultimately kill credit as we know it. But I'm the one that decides to sign on the dotted line. I'm the one that decides to pay off debt. I'm the one that decides to incur more debt.
In the macro outlook....there are key indicators we can read to determine which way the wind is really blowing despite the market facade (and manipulation)...and make correspondingly appropriate decisions. Can we beat them at their game....me thinks not. But we can/should prepare for what we see as the eventual end point.
I will say this and would be interested in Jason's take - yes public debt is exploding while private debt is being paid down - even outpacing the government's spending. I'll grant you - that is NET deflationary.
However, I think you are not looking at the whole picture/endgame. This means that while the public is getting rid of cash to get out of private debt - the government is offsetting a large part of that with spending - this means that the recipients of government money - MIC, other favored groups such as green energy and family/friends are gaining a growing stack of money that they are not circulating and thus they are sitting on a pile of cash - so if we have a deflationary crash, aren't they going to be buying up devalued assets for pennies on the dollar - with OUR TAX MONEY? Or maybe this is your point in that this is the final asset transfer - the question is, what is the smart move what can we do in such an apparently no win situation?
I look at the picture in terms of government and private as being one pocket. Government doesn't produce...and is a service to the people....as well as being the collective representation (whether its really representational or not). So government can borrow...but the ultimate obligation is still borne by the people....so effectively the people are borrowing via another vehicle. The problem as OI points out....is the debt/money is not distributed equally....nor is control equal. So what happens is some businesses die and others thrive based on the flow of debt/money. Another tool.
That's the whole point of oppressive government - the control or use of force to decide who gets what. That's why the government is so heavily invested in every major industry in the world....and have created legal control points to dictate where money flows (FDA, USDA, Fanny, Freddie, etc etc etc). Whoever controls the government....controls the flow of money via legal schemes....and can profit accordingly. Another reason the only legal insider trading is via our "representatives" in Congress. Why else would a person spend millions for a $75k per year job??? The reality is....because they can make millions trading with the insider knowledge they will obtain concerning where the money will flow...as well as making some of those decisions directly.
So in our current debt saturated deflationary environment - If some people can force debt upon others (who are already buried - thus hastening their default) while seeing that the proceeds of that debt go to someone else (prolonging that person's default or allowing them to buy the defaulted assets at pennies on the dollar)...it gets pretty nasty in a hurry. Which is what is happening. A real no win situation....unless you are buddies with dirty rotten scoundrels.
Smart moves?
Change representation to selfless individuals willing to sacrifice their opportunity for wealth to go with the best interests of their electorate - a long shot with the likes of ES&S and DVS...not to mention the macro scenario of people desperate to service debt while current representation controls the flow of debt/money (thus able to buy off or persuade others who selfishly sucker themselves in - mass media, propaganda, public relations, kickbacks, back scratching, etc).
Get mad and violent and shoot them all and start over.....just a thought.
Wait for the collective ability to borrow to reach its limits....such that they will fight each other as the game of musical chairs gets dramatic....and hope they kill each other off in the process....so can start over. This would include the majority of the masses who have participated in the combinations to obtain wealth from others....but who find themselves getting cut out (back stabbing)....and thus start really stabbing anyone they can get their hands on as a response. I think this is fairly well documented in history as one of the logical conclusion points of wickedness.
Seems to me it will be the latter....and I don't think we have too long to wait....although there is still a gap to be bridged between now and then. In my mind the best way to survive the gap is food storage, means of food production, having or obtaining the ability to produce other related stuff (shelter, energy, protection, and other basic needs), getting/staying out of debt (don't contribute new money, destroy money, and thus hasten the demise), some savings (as money gets harder and harder to come by), etc. I think most of which (if not all) has been recommended by the prophets as well as the prophecies concerning the end point for the current system.
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