Littlewood's law of miracles

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inho
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Littlewood's law of miracles

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In scientific experiments measurements are often done with machines that give some kind of output or signal. It can be an oscilloscope, or huge machinery like LIGO in the study of gravitational waves. If there is no output, i.e., just flat line, then there is most likely something wrong with the instrument. But if there is some output, an important part of the study is to differentiate the real signal from the noise. Sometimes it is easy, the signal is a clear peak that is much higher than the typical noise level. But sometimes the amplitude of the signal is close to the noise, and statistical methods are needed to determine if it really is a signal or just a false alert.

Cambridge mathematician John Edensor Littlewood wrote once a popular book about mathematics. Among other things, he tried to bunk some supernatural claims in that book. In the book he comes up with what is now called Littlewood's law of miracles.

Littlewood starts with the assumption that a human can hear or see one "event" per second. During a month, a human can see almost one million events. Thus, if there is an event that is so rare that it occurs with frequency one in a million, then one should see such an event once a month. Rare event like that would be easily categorized as a miracle.

So, seemingly miraculous events are commonplace. These events can be coincidences like you having a thought to call someone and hear that the person is in a need of help just at that moment. Or perhaps you pray about something and happen to read a relevant passage in the scriptures that day.

How can we differentiate real miracles from the background noise? Not all coincidental happenings are a proof of divine intervention.

Also, do you experience seemingly miraculous events once a month? If only once a month, is it then just the noise? If not even that often, is there something wrong with you as the measurement device?

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