Demographics and real estate down the road?

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Rubicon
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Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by Rubicon »

Setting aside catastrophes, invasion, war, etc. . . .

Setting all of that aside, what will be the long-term effect of the housing boom, say, 20-30 years out? When the Boomers and many of GenX die off, won't there be a massive oversupply of houses, apartments, etc.? Won't many areas turn into ghost towns? I'm thinking about the falling birthrates over generations when the big generations die off. The massive building is to accommodate demographics right now. But what about when there are far more deaths than births over decades?

I can see this factor alone (and there are and are going to be many other important factors, too) leading to an economic crisis with the housing market falling by record amounts. Realtors, local politicians, and others I've asked seem not to have thought about it at all.

EmmaLee
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by EmmaLee »

The communist Chinese will fill those empty houses - and sooner than many would like to believe.

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JK4Woods
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by JK4Woods »

Wealthy REITS will have Antifa burn down large swaths of suburbia. Housing stocks will be drastically reduced.

“Rich” white homeowners will see property taxes skyrocket to subsidize less fortunate neighbors, and all the bloated city programs whose expenses and budgets grow with continued political pandering and inflation, while the quantity of real taxpayers actually falls...

Corporations will buy up homes by the hundreds a week, not at a profit for the struggling homeowners, but just the remaining mortgage amount.

Everyone will become renters...
“You’ll own nothing and be happy”...
Last edited by JK4Woods on December 16th, 2021, 12:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.

HVDC
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by HVDC »

Rubicon wrote: December 16th, 2021, 12:31 pm Setting aside catastrophes, invasion, war, etc. . . .

Setting all of that aside, what will be the long-term effect of the housing boom, say, 20-30 years out? When the Boomers and many of GenX die off, won't there be a massive oversupply of houses, apartments, etc.? Won't many areas turn into ghost towns? I'm thinking about the falling birthrates over generations when the big generations die off. The massive building is to accommodate demographics right now. But what about when there are far more deaths than births over decades?

I can see this factor alone (and there are and are going to be many other important factors, too) leading to an economic crisis with the housing market falling by record amounts. Realtors, local politicians, and others I've asked seem not to have thought about it at all.
Someone is thinking about it.

The United States is being flooded with immigrants, legal and otherwise.

Long term?

Who knows.

Urbanization?

Certainly Californacation.

It appears that they are both trying to increase our populations and reduce them at the same time.

It is as though the crazies are running the show.

But I suspect the usual suspects are behind it all.

And they have a plan.

Missed that memo.

Sir H
Last edited by HVDC on December 16th, 2021, 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Vision
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by Vision »

It really doesn't matter what demographics project the world is supposed to end by 2030 unless we cover the earth with windmills and solar farms, kill all the cows, and stop eating meat because climate change will kill us off.

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Momma J
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by Momma J »

Vision wrote: December 16th, 2021, 3:43 pm It really doesn't matter what demographics project the world is supposed to end by 2030 unless we cover the earth with windmills and solar farms, kill all the cows, and stop eating meat because climate change will kill us off.
It will not be climate change that kills us all off.

As to the topic. Pay off your bills and become self-sufficient as quickly as possible. Learn to garden, to harvest seeds, to become less reliant on technology.

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harakim
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by harakim »

Rubicon wrote: December 16th, 2021, 12:31 pm Setting aside catastrophes, invasion, war, etc. . . .

Setting all of that aside, what will be the long-term effect of the housing boom, say, 20-30 years out? When the Boomers and many of GenX die off, won't there be a massive oversupply of houses, apartments, etc.? Won't many areas turn into ghost towns? I'm thinking about the falling birthrates over generations when the big generations die off. The massive building is to accommodate demographics right now. But what about when there are far more deaths than births over decades?

I can see this factor alone (and there are and are going to be many other important factors, too) leading to an economic crisis with the housing market falling by record amounts. Realtors, local politicians, and others I've asked seem not to have thought about it at all.
Money doesn't follow supply and demand anymore. There's a huge supply of money and nothing to buy with it. It's just up to what SJWs want to support. Housing is up right now. It will probably drop and go up again. Prices are not tied to actual economic factors anymore, so they are hard to predict.

Rubicon
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by Rubicon »

harakim wrote: January 5th, 2022, 3:13 am
Money doesn't follow supply and demand anymore. There's a huge supply of money and nothing to buy with it. It's just up to what SJWs want to support. Housing is up right now. It will probably drop and go up again. Prices are not tied to actual economic factors anymore, so they are hard to predict.
I can't see millions of empty houses and apartments not affecting price, though. Even if SJW wanted to manipulate and keep prices high, owners and landlords are going to set prices that will attract buyers/tenants.

JuneBug12000
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by JuneBug12000 »

Remember when houses were selling for $1 in Michigan?

https://patch.com/michigan/detroit/5-ho ... k-little-1

I have a childhood friend whose neighborhood was torn down, even though it was nice and not old, to help restore housing prices.

https://detroitmi.gov/departments/detro ... department
Detroit Demolition Funding and Upcoming Project Status
Detroit is home to the nation's largest and safest demolition program. Since 2014, it has taken down over 20,000 vacant buildings in Detroit neighborhoods. Voters approved Proposal N for Neighborhoods, a $250M comprehensive plan to address vacant houses in Detroit through preservation or demolition. As a result, the Demolition Department is tasked with demolishing an additional 8,000 blighted homes and preserving 6,000 blighted homes for future renovation and sale, improving the safety, value and health of our neighborhoods.
Edited to add links

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mudflap
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by mudflap »

Inflation is going to be the dominant "variant" in this country in 2022.

IF - and that's a big IF -
If we survive - economically - the next 2-5 years, then yes, depopulation is going to be a huge issue.

But yeah, blackstone or some other corporation is going to artificially keep the supply of housing low, and prices high.

we need to stop thinking that we have a representative government - because we don't. it is more and more a corporatocracy -

- google controls your free speech rights
- pfizer controls your health "care"
- tesla controls your freedom of movement (auto industry)
- vaccines are the new religion
- "pursuit of happiness" means buying things.

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harakim
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by harakim »

Rubicon wrote: January 5th, 2022, 12:01 pm
harakim wrote: January 5th, 2022, 3:13 am
Money doesn't follow supply and demand anymore. There's a huge supply of money and nothing to buy with it. It's just up to what SJWs want to support. Housing is up right now. It will probably drop and go up again. Prices are not tied to actual economic factors anymore, so they are hard to predict.
I can't see millions of empty houses and apartments not affecting price, though. Even if SJW wanted to manipulate and keep prices high, owners and landlords are going to set prices that will attract buyers/tenants.
The other side of the coin is what is the money supply doing? If there is only 1 house for everyone to compete for, but the economy has 1 dollar, then the house will cost less than 1 dollar. If there are 10 houses per person, but there is a supply of 100 bananza-trillion dollars, then every house is going to cost more than the total money in the economy right now. So in terms of dollars, it's basically impossible to predict.

In terms of real value, you could make an argument that house prices will drop when people die. However, this assumption is based on a lack of total information. Most houses in the country, if left unoccupied, will be unlivable in 10 years. (That's not true in dry places like the great plains or western states.) So if houses are unoccupied, then they will become run down and the overabundance of houses will rectify itself. So supply probably won't be too much of a factor unless a die-off happens rapidly. The government could open the borders or something else and then there would be more people. So demand could go up rapidly.

For all these reasons, it is hard to predict what housing prices will do. At an academic level, yes if there are lots of empty houses, and the dollar maintains its value, prices will go down. There are some BIG ifs in there to base an investment strategy on, though.

I can't give financial advice, but if it were me, my number one priority would be to buy something reasonably priced that I could stand to live in if I got stuck there and pay it off. If you want to do investing in real estate, try and do it in a way that does not affect your ability to keep a paid off home. Start a business that does this and have it be totally separate from your income so they can't come after you when it fails. If you do that, you'll have the best of both worlds. Odds seem to be that prices will keep exploding for a while, but you never know. If the Fed tapers, then house prices will probably fall soon after. It's a huge gamble and you can't figure it out without knowing the mind of the people who pull the strings.

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gkearney
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by gkearney »

mudflap wrote: January 5th, 2022, 12:28 pm\
- tesla controls your freedom of movement (auto industry)
Care to offer an explanation as to how Tesla with just 1.54% of the U.S. car market is going to "control your freedom of movement"?

source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/519 ... ed-states/

Liahona
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by Liahona »

Rubicon wrote: December 16th, 2021, 12:31 pm Setting aside catastrophes, invasion, war, etc. . . .

Setting all of that aside, what will be the long-term effect of the housing boom, say, 20-30 years out? When the Boomers and many of GenX die off, won't there be a massive oversupply of houses, apartments, etc.? Won't many areas turn into ghost towns? I'm thinking about the falling birthrates over generations when the big generations die off. The massive building is to accommodate demographics right now. But what about when there are far more deaths than births over decades?

I can see this factor alone (and there are and are going to be many other important factors, too) leading to an economic crisis with the housing market falling by record amounts. Realtors, local politicians, and others I've asked seem not to have thought about it at all.
Don't see this happening. There isn't enough inventory to keep up with the momentum as is.

The millennial cohort is larger than baby boomers as well. Europe is largely in decline and is still facing housing shortages as well.

Vision
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by Vision »

mudflap wrote: January 5th, 2022, 12:28 pm Inflation is going to be the dominant "variant" in this country in 2022.

IF - and that's a big IF -
If we survive - economically - the next 2-5 years, then yes, depopulation is going to be a huge issue.

But yeah, blackstone or some other corporation is going to artificially keep the supply of housing low, and prices high.

we need to stop thinking that we have a representative government - because we don't. it is more and more a corporatocracy -

- google controls your free speech rights
- pfizer controls your health "care"
- tesla controls your freedom of movement (auto industry)
- vaccines are the new religion
- "pursuit of happiness" means buying things.
"pursuit of happiness" means buying things which is also mistaken for freedom.

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mudflap
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by mudflap »

gkearney wrote: January 5th, 2022, 1:25 pm
mudflap wrote: January 5th, 2022, 12:28 pm\
- tesla controls your freedom of movement (auto industry)
Care to offer an explanation as to how Tesla with just 1.54% of the U.S. car market is going to "control your freedom of movement"?

source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/519 ... ed-states/
sure:

1.
however, Tesla is the market leader in battery-electric car sales for the United States.
(from the link you shared)
2. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nancy-pe ... 17279.html
3. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/gover ... te-change/
4. https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/10/1628 ... s-x-60-60d
5. https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech ... r-crashes/
6. https://www.rt.com/usa/264065-musk-tesl ... subsidies/

those other dinosaur car companies (ford, GM, toyota, etc.) are going to have to compete with a nearly 100% government subsidized car manufacturer.

So the plan is:
- make everyone drive an electric vehicle, I-95 freezing weather in Virginia notwithstanding.
- remotely control where you can go in your electric car (#4 above)
- crash the cars of folks who disagree with BigGov (#5 above)

Voila!: control freedom of movement accomplished.

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mudflap
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by mudflap »

Vision wrote: January 5th, 2022, 2:23 pm
mudflap wrote: January 5th, 2022, 12:28 pm Inflation is going to be the dominant "variant" in this country in 2022.

IF - and that's a big IF -
If we survive - economically - the next 2-5 years, then yes, depopulation is going to be a huge issue.

But yeah, blackstone or some other corporation is going to artificially keep the supply of housing low, and prices high.

we need to stop thinking that we have a representative government - because we don't. it is more and more a corporatocracy -

- google controls your free speech rights
- pfizer controls your health "care"
- tesla controls your freedom of movement (auto industry)
- vaccines are the new religion
- "pursuit of happiness" means buying things.
"pursuit of happiness" means buying things which is also mistaken for freedom.
yes, sadly true. it was originally "pursuit of property" - john locke's trinity -
having the right to own your own property means the government can't control you buy owning your land and making you a serf.

But BigBank has all but taken that away through 30 year loans, encouraging you to go deeply into debt for a home that MIGHT last 70 years, meaning you pass a money pit down to your heirs, further enriching BigBank. BigGov requires you to pay an annual tax on your home, otherwise forcing you off your "property" at the point of a gun.

Ahhh.....the good ole' days when America believed a man's home was his castle.....

Image

Rubicon
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by Rubicon »

Liahona wrote: January 5th, 2022, 2:11 pm
Don't see this happening. There isn't enough inventory to keep up with the momentum as is.
For now, but I'm talking about decades down the road, when generations have died and aren't replaced (because of birth rates that have plummeted precipitously).
The millennial cohort is larger than baby boomers as well. Europe is largely in decline and is still facing housing shortages as well.
The millennial cohort's current and projected birthrates are at European levels. U.S. average number of kids used to be 2.3 (3.7 LDS, but this has largely dropped to mirror society), but if they, GenZ, GenAlpha, etc. drop to below 1 as projected, it doesn't seem to me that it will matter if the millennial cohort is larger than the boomer cohort. Especially with the home sizes that are being built right now.

Liahona
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Re: Demographics and real estate down the road?

Post by Liahona »

Rubicon wrote: January 6th, 2022, 9:08 am
Liahona wrote: January 5th, 2022, 2:11 pm
Don't see this happening. There isn't enough inventory to keep up with the momentum as is.
For now, but I'm talking about decades down the road, when generations have died and aren't replaced (because of birth rates that have plummeted precipitously).
The millennial cohort is larger than baby boomers as well. Europe is largely in decline and is still facing housing shortages as well.
The millennial cohort's current and projected birthrates are at European levels. U.S. average number of kids used to be 2.3 (3.7 LDS, but this has largely dropped to mirror society), but if they, GenZ, GenAlpha, etc. drop to below 1 as projected, it doesn't seem to me that it will matter if the millennial cohort is larger than the boomer cohort. Especially with the home sizes that are being built right now.
Europe has been in decline for a while now but they aren't facing an overload of homes was my point. I don't think the US will face a similar situation especially with the shortage of homes we are experiencing now and will still be experiencing for many years to come. In fact, the housing shortage is at an all time low and is at crisis level IMO. Simply put, I don't think this will be an issue the US will be facing for a long long time (if ever).

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