Weird that you removed me pic. but me put it back.elbur wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2021, 11:09 pmGiven that this specific set of events wasn't predicted beforehand, your setup is wrong, and there is no meaningful probability that can be calculated.BeNotDeceived wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2021, 10:26 pmGood analysis there,elbur wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2021, 10:10 pmI already did. I estimated that the likelihood of at least one DS signal being interpreted by Michael Sherwin as being close to 100% over time.BeNotDeceived wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2021, 10:07 pm Me did Phyce 101, and a course in probability, too.
What do ye suppose the course number is for probability?
Still waiting for you, or anyone to even venture an educated ballpark guess.
Ballpark Guess, but not uneducated. dbnp
but the question was about a 5.7 magnitude earthquake, with an epicenter close enough to land said instrument, within an exact instance of time, plus or minus 30 seconds. Also consider the time interval between when Mike told us his story, and when the 5.7 EQ struck, as an additional mathematical constraint.
Pretend it's a question on your final exam in math 507, and don't forget to show your work.
The exact times and interpreting the trumpet falling is constructed after the fact (i.e. in the pic). It comes off like an Aztec chieftain claiming his human sacrifices led to an unanticipated bumper crop that happened to be the same poundage as his birth year minus two (because two is his favorite number).
There, shows 3 EQs stepping up 0.8 magnitude. 38 again,Michael Sherwin wrote: ↑May 15th, 2021, 7:22 am First there was a 5.7 then a 6.5 so now all I'll do is give an opportunity to the Spirit to speak up with a 7.3 and fully take the hit if it does not and say I must have been deceived by a false spirit all this time.
that indeed begin with a 5.7 … another chance to demonstrate your probability prowess, by telling us the chance of someone, or something predicting a 7.3 earthquake, and have one occur within one weeks time, from said prediction?
I’ll daringly predict, that you’ll again obfuscate your way out of any actual arithmetic, but please do feel free to prove me wrong.