Imminent Food Chain Issues

[mudflap]

I have loved reading your log home posts! If only I could convince my husband. . .

I think my wife looked into the mineral oil - maybe it's worth looking into again. Well, all of ours have stopped laying for the season, so it'll be next year. We have 2 or 3 dozen eggs in the other container, so we'll see how they store over the winter.

On the convincing the husband -

Usually, it's the other way around!

I would totally suggest something smaller than my 40'x40' full two story - it would go so much faster. In my mind, building with logs is THE BEST way to build a home - no other material insulates as well, is cheaper, or has as much resale value. Sure, concrete is stronger, but it's more expensive. Sure, "straw bale" or "earth filled tires" is more insulative, but it doesn't have good resale value. Logs can be free or almost free if you know how to get them. Getting your walls and the structure for your home for free saves you at least $100k on the cost.

And this method is almost foolproof: you get good results, even if you have no idea what you're doing (like me).

[mudflap]

I found www.lhba.com back in 2001 when my ex and I were looking at building a cabin on our property in Paris Idaho. She was like, "there's no way you can build a log home - it must be a scam." So I kept researching it for years. Got divorced, got remarried, moved across the country. My new wife was like, "no way. I'm not living in some Abraham Lincoln cabin with a dirt floor!" So I encouraged her to watch the HGTV channel for log cabins. It took her about 7 years to come around, when we couldn't find a 5B/3BA on 1+ acre, and she said, "maybe we should look into your log cabin idea." She liked it because we could control the chemicals, the floorplan, the quality of the build, etc. by doing it ourselves. I liked it "because logs" ...

....The rest is history....

Getting out of debt is the biggest +. <- (And with that, we are now back on topic...)

[tribrac]

I was way ahead of the first pandemic food run. Saw it coming months ahead of time.

I was not worried lately but today I think I might have misjudged the current situation.

It hit cnn yesterday with headlines of food shortages and the people are reacting. Family is mostly good but I need a few things...thinking i better get them today.

At local associated foods store yesterday people were packing out way more than usual.

[JuneBug12000]

I was way ahead of the first pandemic food run. Saw it coming months ahead of time.

I was not worried lately but today I think I might have misjudged the current situation.

It hit cnn yesterday with headlines of food shortages and the people are reacting. Family is mostly good but I need a few things...thinking i better get them today.

At local associated foods store yesterday people were packing out way more than usual.

I was the same in March 2020. All ready. Then during the summer He gave me quite a list to get through, so I did.
But for some reason, right now, the Lord keeps telling me not to stock up again. I wonder if it has to do with deflation or if we are moving again sooner than I thought.

My husband even works in food manufacturing and they have been shutting down lines for lack of workers. I'd think I would need to top everything off, but the Holy Spirit says"No. Just be still." So I am.

[tribrac]

Yep. I don't feel urgent either atleast not until i saw others panicking.

[Pazooka]

My husband even works in food manufacturing and they have been shutting down lines for lack of workers.

What does your husband say about why they are lacking for workers?

I know the official line is that people who had been working pre-plandemic are happy living off the dole, instead, right now. But I’m not seeing it (maybe because I’m not acquainted with anyone of that mentality, generally). But I’m seeing more employment among those I know rather than less. Where is the shortage of workers coming from? I wonder

Is the population decreasing? Disability increasing?

[JuneBug12000]

Yep. I don't feel urgent either atleast not until i saw others panicking.

I had a thought today with regard to this.

2020 the Lord had me stock up, I would say overstock, in the summer when everyone else was hiding inside, even though we were moving. It was not fun to pack up all the food in boxes, but it was way more organized after, so that is nice.

Then we move and the Lord keeps telling me to rest, rest, rest. Not normal for our family. He even provided extra funding from the sale of our house.

Since this summer I have been watching shortages and my brain says: Stock UP! But the Spirit says, rest, be still.

Today I realized that there is a similarity to the children of Israel and manna. Last year was Saturday. Tons of work. Fixing the house. Moving. Food storage, etc. This year is Sunday: Rest.

The Jewish calendar has two "new years." One in the Spring and one in the Fall. This seems to be going spring to spring right now for us. Even though many years in the past it has been fall to fall.

[JuneBug12000]

My husband even works in food manufacturing and they have been shutting down lines for lack of workers.

What does your husband say about why they are lacking for workers?

I know the official line is that people who had been working pre-plandemic are happy living off the dole, instead, right now. But I’m not seeing it (maybe because I’m not acquainted with anyone of that mentality, generally). But I’m seeing more employment among those I know rather than less. Where is the shortage of workers coming from? I wonder

Is the population decreasing? Disability increasing?

He said it is day by day that they are running or shutting lines. Just if there are enough workers.

I did notice McDonald's is paying $15 starting by us now. And harvest is going on, so maybe that is in play. It is generally hard to get and keep workers in a factory anytime. Always lots of turnover.

I will say, demographically, we should have had 3 more years before this lack of workers affected things.

[Juliet]

Yep. I don't feel urgent either atleast not until i saw others panicking.

I had a thought today with regard to this.

2020 the Lord had me stock up, I would say overstock, in the summer when everyone else was hiding inside, even though we were moving. It was not fun to pack up all the food in boxes, but it was way more organized after, so that is nice.

Then we move and the Lord keeps telling me to rest, rest, rest. Not normal for our family. He even provided extra funding from the sale of our house.

Since this summer I have been watching shortages and my brain says: Stock UP! But the Spirit says, rest, be still.

Today I realized that there is a similarity to the children of Israel and manna. Last year was Saturday. Tons of work. Fixing the house. Moving. Food storage, etc. This year is Sunday: Rest.

The Jewish calendar has two "new years." One in the Spring and one in the Fall. This seems to be going spring to spring right now for us. Even though many years in the past it has been fall to fall.

Thanks for sharing I could relate a bit to these same feelings you had.

[Pazooka]

My husband even works in food manufacturing and they have been shutting down lines for lack of workers.

What does your husband say about why they are lacking for workers?

I know the official line is that people who had been working pre-plandemic are happy living off the dole, instead, right now. But I’m not seeing it (maybe because I’m not acquainted with anyone of that mentality, generally). But I’m seeing more employment among those I know rather than less. Where is the shortage of workers coming from? I wonder

Is the population decreasing? Disability increasing?

He said it is day by day that they are running or shutting lines. Just if there are enough workers.

I did notice McDonald's is paying $15 starting by us now. And harvest is going on, so maybe that is in play. It is generally hard to get and keep workers in a factory anytime. Always lots of turnover.

I will say, demographically, we should have had 3 more years before this lack of workers affected things.

How is it different now than in pre-plandemic times? I’m sure there has always been a high turnover in factory work. But we never saw the manufacturing shortages, in my lifetime, that we are now.

[Niemand]

How is it different now than in pre-plandemic times? I’m sure there has always been a high turnover in factory work. But we never saw the manufacturing shortages, in my lifetime, that we are now.

1) The economy has been stalled repeatedly. The global economy was largely short circuited and then for about a year, anyone who tests positive is prevented from working in many places. None of this bodes well in the long run.
2) It does depend on the industry but a few have benefitted - online delivery, fast food, IT, mask manufacture etc have all seen increased demand, so workers are needed in those fields.

In the longer term we see the following patterns:
* A reliance on a constant supply of labour from poorer countries.
* People being told they are under/overqualified or unexperienced when they are capable of doing the job.
* Discouraging people from working in a job longterm, meaning people continually need to be (re)trained, do not develop relationships with customers, or have experience.
* The use of a poor of unpaid labour, aka "interns" etc, who should be getting paid but are encouraging a culture where people work for free. Wikipedia is even part of this mentality. When people work for free, it is harder for other people to get paid for similar work.
* The non-profit/charitable sector can function much like business, but can suck money out of the economy by again using volunteers, not paying for goods, or paying taxes.
* A lot of wastage - people doing useless or nonsense jobs, while other areas which should be paid are not.

[Jason]

Articles out of UK this morning...

One discusses food rationing...the other discusses culling 120,000 hogs because the processor doesn't have the labor capability to process them all...

So plenty of food...but the large monopoly of middlemen are clogging up the works...both sides (producer & consumer) get hosed...likely on purpose...

[mudflap]

How is it different now than in pre-plandemic times? I’m sure there has always been a high turnover in factory work. But we never saw the manufacturing shortages, in my lifetime, that we are now.

common things can be hard to get. Example: windows.
During the gas pipeline shutdown of this year here in AL, I went to Home Depot to buy the rest of the windows I needed for the cabin (4 windows), and they didn't have any. Not wanting to install windows that didn't match each other, I hunted around online - no home depot had the ones I was looking for. There was a place to submit a query and have a real person call you with availability, so I did that. A pleasant lady called me back and said they had some at a home depot 2 hours away from me, so I had her put a hold on them so I could go get them. I asked her why she thought they suddenly became scarce and she said they are having problems with all of their supply lines - she said it was 3 things:
1. not enough raw material (glass, metal, silicone, plastic), due to other factories limited supplies because of covid.
2. not enough factory workers to make the windows, due to covid / state shutdowns
3. not enough transportation, due to covid.
I drove like mad, hoping I wouldn't run out of gas (a lot of gas stations were shut down at that point). I stopped every quarter tank or so and filled up because the further south I went, the more spotty gas became. It was surreal.

I haven't had other issues getting supplies, but I've seen common things disappear seemingly overnight - portland cement was gone for 2 weeks - they said it was because everyone was working from home, and trying to get caught up on "honey-do" projects. The lumber shortage is "over" but only because some mills have opened up and the housing market has cooled some (initially due to inflation / raw material price increases - a guy at church building a home said the price for framing it in jumped by $30k at the height of the lumber shortage ). But now the market has cooled somewhat because it's the end of the summer build season in many places. I have a mill and now I have a ton of logs I could turn into lumber if I had to - won't be kiln dried, but it's not structural what I'm doing anyway, so I might do it. probably save $5k on framing lumber.

I think inflation will catch us this month. It might be a perfect storm: holiday season + shipping delays + already shaky supply lines + covid mandates in the workplace + October is the most notorious month for market crashes / corrections + European fuel prices (NE USA expecting high fuel oil prices too) + cold winter predictions + onset of the resumption of the "regularly scheduled" flu season.

It's almost like they are trying to crash things on purpose.....

[Primary Outcast]

I sell cabinets and I'm basically at a stand still right now because my sources that import cabinets are out of stock. tariff and shipping issues are to blame. 3 years ago I would budget $5,500 per 20' shipping container from Asia (usually it would come in less than that), but now a container is over $20k.

Local cabinet manufacturers have increased prices by about 20% this year. It used to take 4-5 weeks to manufacture, now its 14 weeks. Partly because hardwood is harder to get, and partly because the import problems are making the local market busier. Locally built cabinets are about double the cost for similar specs. This means that there is less money for the family to put towards other things to improve their quality of life.

This is happening with everything right now. I've heard that plastics and paint are in a worse situation than wood and cabinets. Average rent is up 11.5% in 12 months. The death spiral has begun where everybody has to increase prices.

[tribrac]

I worked in a grocery store as a kid. I like to walk through a grocery store a few times a week.


Today i noticed quite a few people with carts full of canned goods and staples. Not a rush but a few people are prepping.

[Jason]

I worked in a grocery store as a kid. I like to walk through a grocery store a few times a week.


Today i noticed quite a few people with carts full of canned goods and staples. Not a rush but a few people are prepping.

...the smart observant ones...

[JuneBug12000]

My husband even works in food manufacturing and they have been shutting down lines for lack of workers.

What does your husband say about why they are lacking for workers?

I know the official line is that people who had been working pre-plandemic are happy living off the dole, instead, right now. But I’m not seeing it (maybe because I’m not acquainted with anyone of that mentality, generally). But I’m seeing more employment among those I know rather than less. Where is the shortage of workers coming from? I wonder

Is the population decreasing? Disability increasing?

I think the shot may play a part.

At first they let people with the shot put stickers on their helmets and wear less PPP.

Then his company was so desperate to get people to get the shot they had a lottery. First prize $50,000, second $20,000. Can't remember the rest of the amounts. Keep in mind this is a fairly small company. I feel bad for any who got the shot on the hope of that money. These are people who could really use it.

They are shifting gears from very pro-vax to very "we'd like workers so we don't go out of business."

Right after Pres. Biden announcement about vax mandate they sent out a letter saying they won't take action on this right now. Waiting to see it play out.