Breakthrough infections

[Lemarque]

SALT LAKE CITY — As 12 more deaths due to COVID-19 and 2,423 cases were reported Monday from the previous three days, state health officials said those without vaccinations have died or experienced serious illness at exponentially higher rates than those who were vaccinated.

"In the last 28 days, people who are unvaccinated are at 5.4 times greater risk of dying from COVID-19, 6.5 times greater risk of being hospitalized due to COVID-19, and 5.0 times greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19 than vaccinated people," officials with the Utah Department of Health said in a statement.

If this is correct, there are thousands of breakthrough cases in Utah in the last month.https://www.ksl.com/article/50224226/ut ... -12-deaths

Yeah, don't you love how they never actually tell you the actual numbers, only what percentage risk one has. It's obvious that they don't want to talk about actual numbers or breakthrough deaths and hospitalizations.

You can always just look them up:
https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

I'll use your type of statistics, franklin:

According to the Utah Department of health, over the last 28 days for every 200 fully vaccinated people who have tested positive for covid, 1 has died. In contrast, for every 207.5 unvaccinated people who have tested positive for covid 1 has died. In other words, among current covid cases, those who are fully vaccinated are dying from covid at a higher rate than those who are unvaccinated.

vaccinatedrate.png (15.02 KiB) Viewed 975 times

[franklinbluth]

SALT LAKE CITY — As 12 more deaths due to COVID-19 and 2,423 cases were reported Monday from the previous three days, state health officials said those without vaccinations have died or experienced serious illness at exponentially higher rates than those who were vaccinated.

"In the last 28 days, people who are unvaccinated are at 5.4 times greater risk of dying from COVID-19, 6.5 times greater risk of being hospitalized due to COVID-19, and 5.0 times greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19 than vaccinated people," officials with the Utah Department of Health said in a statement.

If this is correct, there are thousands of breakthrough cases in Utah in the last month.https://www.ksl.com/article/50224226/ut ... -12-deaths

Yeah, don't you love how they never actually tell you the actual numbers, only what percentage risk one has. It's obvious that they don't want to talk about actual numbers or breakthrough deaths and hospitalizations.

You can always just look them up:
https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

I can't see anything on that link about breakthrough cases.

It's under the "Risk Factors" tab

Screenshot_20210817-204827.png (489.9 KiB) Viewed 966 times

[franklinbluth]

SALT LAKE CITY — As 12 more deaths due to COVID-19 and 2,423 cases were reported Monday from the previous three days, state health officials said those without vaccinations have died or experienced serious illness at exponentially higher rates than those who were vaccinated.

"In the last 28 days, people who are unvaccinated are at 5.4 times greater risk of dying from COVID-19, 6.5 times greater risk of being hospitalized due to COVID-19, and 5.0 times greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19 than vaccinated people," officials with the Utah Department of Health said in a statement.

If this is correct, there are thousands of breakthrough cases in Utah in the last month.https://www.ksl.com/article/50224226/ut ... -12-deaths

Yeah, don't you love how they never actually tell you the actual numbers, only what percentage risk one has. It's obvious that they don't want to talk about actual numbers or breakthrough deaths and hospitalizations.

You can always just look them up:
https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

I'll use your type of statistics, franklin:

According to the Utah Department of health, over the last 28 days for every 200 fully vaccinated people who have tested positive for covid, 1 has died. In contrast, for every 207.5 unvaccinated people who have tested positive for covid 1 has died. In other words, among current covid cases, those who are fully vaccinated are dying from covid at a higher rate than those who are unvaccinated.
vaccinatedrate.png

There are several problems with that takeaway:

1. The total breakthrough deaths is 29. Anytime your sample size is that small relative to the population, it's difficult to draw a significant conclusion.

2. Unless there's reason to think that vaxed folk are doing something else to avoid infection, the important number is the overall death rate, not the lethality rate. In this case, the death rates aren't even close.

3. There's reason to believe that the number of unreported breakthroughs is higher than the number of unreported unvaxed cases. If the vax reduces the symptoms, as the death and hospitalization rates reflect, then we would expect what would otherwise be mild cases to be even less severe, decreasing the likelihood of testing.

[Sarah]

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08 ... feat-delta
"with 78% of those 12 and older fully vaccinated, the vast majority with the Pfizer vaccine. Yet the country is now logging one of the world’s highest infection rates, with nearly 650 new cases daily per million people."
"As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. “There are so many breakthrough infections that they dominate and most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated,” says Uri Shalit..."

[Lemarque]

Yeah, don't you love how they never actually tell you the actual numbers, only what percentage risk one has. It's obvious that they don't want to talk about actual numbers or breakthrough deaths and hospitalizations.

You can always just look them up:
https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

I'll use your type of statistics, franklin:

According to the Utah Department of health, over the last 28 days for every 200 fully vaccinated people who have tested positive for covid, 1 has died. In contrast, for every 207.5 unvaccinated people who have tested positive for covid 1 has died. In other words, among current covid cases, those who are fully vaccinated are dying from covid at a higher rate than those who are unvaccinated.
vaccinatedrate.png

There are several problems with that takeaway:

1. The total breakthrough deaths is 29. Anytime your sample size is that small relative to the population, it's difficult to draw a significant conclusion.

2. Unless there's reason to think that vaxed folk are doing something else to avoid infection, the important number is the overall death rate, not the lethality rate. In this case, the death rates aren't even close.

3. There's reason to believe that the number of unreported breakthroughs is higher than the number of unreported unvaxed cases. If the vax reduces the symptoms, as the death and hospitalization rates reflect, then we would expect what would otherwise be mild cases to be even less severe, decreasing the likelihood of testing.

1. Those numbers are from just the last 28 days, not total. I'm just comparing the numbers they give for the last 28 days. At what number of deaths would you say a significant conclusion can be drawn? Were you were in favor of Utah shutting down when under 10 total cases in the whole state had been identified? Was that enough data to come to the significant conclusion to shut down the state?

2. Do you think masks work? My experience is that everyone I've run into that is still wearing a mask is vaccinated (unless they are a store employee where masks are required). I also recall a poll recently showing that unvaccinated are more likely to be willing to go to a movie, on a cruise, and other things like that than those who are vaccinated. Here's an example of what the people who most closely "follow the experts" are told. https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/not-vac ... 59880.html

"The important number" is whatever the person creating the statistic wants it to be. For me, I'm more concerned about lethality because I've been told multiple times over the last month that in terms of catching the delta variant it's not if, it's when. The data show that over the last 28 days among those who have tested positive for covid, it has been more lethal to those who are vaccinated.

3. "There's reason to believe..." is not data. I also believe that the number of breakthrough cases is higher than reported, but I don't think that it's higher than unreported unvaccinated cases. So until one of us can find actual data to support one of those positions, that speculation is pointless.

So until then, it is 100% accurate to say that according to the Utah data released on August 17, covid has been more lethal to those who are vaccinated than those who are unvaccinated among people who have tested positive for covid between July 17 and August 14.

[h_p]

I guess I need to say this again.
1) Delta has an Ro of about 8, about 3x that of the Alpha (ref- CDC). With these leaky vaccines, if we were to have 100% vaccine uptake and perfect mask use we cannot stop the spread of Delta (ref- CDC).

https://twitter.com/RWMaloneMD/status/1 ... 4921122819

[Lemarque]

It's under the "Risk Factors" tab


Screenshot_20210817-204827.png

On the risk factors tab it starts with "Since February 1st, unvaccinated Utahns have..."

Since apparently Feb 1 is a fair starting point to compare vaxxed vs. unvaxxed, the following is also true.

On Feb 1, the 7 day average of breakthrough infections in Utah was 0, and on August 14th the 7 day average of breakthrough infections was 152.3, an increase of infinity%.

In contrast, the 7 day average of unvaccinated infections on Feb 1 was 1392.3, and on August 14th the 7 day average of unvaccinated infections was 747, a decrease of 46.3%.


Maybe July 1 is a more fair starting point.

Breakthroughs: 52 on July 1st, 152.3 on August 14. Increase of 293%.
Unvaccinated: 347.9 on July 1st, 747 on August 14th. Increase of 214%.

I am fully aware that these statistics I am using are bad comparisons (including the ones in my other post). I'm just trying to show that when you get to pick and choose start/end dates and remove context, you can make statistics say anything you want. It's what the mainstream media is doing with the current "kids and coronavirus" scare, and they have been doing it consistently in studies to show that masks, lockdowns, and all of the other things they say are necessary work.

[franklinbluth]

You can always just look them up:
https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

I'll use your type of statistics, franklin:

According to the Utah Department of health, over the last 28 days for every 200 fully vaccinated people who have tested positive for covid, 1 has died. In contrast, for every 207.5 unvaccinated people who have tested positive for covid 1 has died. In other words, among current covid cases, those who are fully vaccinated are dying from covid at a higher rate than those who are unvaccinated.
vaccinatedrate.png

There are several problems with that takeaway:

1. The total breakthrough deaths is 29. Anytime your sample size is that small relative to the population, it's difficult to draw a significant conclusion.

2. Unless there's reason to think that vaxed folk are doing something else to avoid infection, the important number is the overall death rate, not the lethality rate. In this case, the death rates aren't even close.

3. There's reason to believe that the number of unreported breakthroughs is higher than the number of unreported unvaxed cases. If the vax reduces the symptoms, as the death and hospitalization rates reflect, then we would expect what would otherwise be mild cases to be even less severe, decreasing the likelihood of testing.

1. Those numbers are from just the last 28 days, not total. I'm just comparing the numbers they give for the last 28 days. At what number of deaths would you say a significant conclusion can be drawn? Were you were in favor of Utah shutting down when under 10 total cases in the whole state had been identified? Was that enough data to come to the significant conclusion to shut down the state?

2. Do you think masks work? My experience is that everyone I've run into that is still wearing a mask is vaccinated (unless they are a store employee where masks are required). I also recall a poll recently showing that unvaccinated are more likely to be willing to go to a movie, on a cruise, and other things like that than those who are vaccinated. Here's an example of what the people who most closely "follow the experts" are told. https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/not-vac ... 59880.html

"The important number" is whatever the person creating the statistic wants it to be. For me, I'm more concerned about lethality because I've been told multiple times over the last month that in terms of catching the delta variant it's not if, it's when. The data show that over the last 28 days among those who have tested positive for covid, it has been more lethal to those who are vaccinated.

3. "There's reason to believe..." is not data. I also believe that the number of breakthrough cases is higher than reported, but I don't think that it's higher than unreported unvaccinated cases. So until one of us can find actual data to support one of those positions, that speculation is pointless.

So until then, it is 100% accurate to say that according to the Utah data released on August 17, covid has been more lethal to those who are vaccinated than those who are unvaccinated among people who have tested positive for covid between July 17 and August 14.

1. The 29 total deaths seems to be overall, not the 28 day numbers. It's hard to say when they're statistically reliable, but usually it's when adding or subtracting a couple doesn't substantially change the results.

2. They marginally work, but I largely don't wear one now that I'm vaxed.

3. "Reason to believe" is how people talk about preliminary data. Preliminary data is neither worthless, nor is it definitive.

Since 29 unvaxed people die every week for a while, I think there's good data for how to get a better outcome.

[tribrac]

You are vaxed and you do not wear a mask, then you franklinbuth are a potential superspreader and dangerous to be around. You may have already passed the virus to hundreds of unsuspecting innocent people.

[tribrac]

A person i know works in an essential business (remember those). The nature of the work mixes people in close proximity with many different overlapping shifts.

Within the past month this business went from maskless to a strict policy of masks for unvaccinated employees.

Some of the vaccinated people continue to wear masks as a show of solidarity.

In the past several days there has been an outbreak of covid. (Roughly 4 to 6% of workforce). All confirmed cases are in the vaccinated group and all from the maskless crowd.

No cases in the masked employees...whether they were vaccinated or not.

I might rethink my opinion of masks.

Ps...i asked if any of those infected had covid previously but my acquaintance couldn't remember if they had ever been out and wasnt close enough to ask them.

[HVDC]

A person i know works in an essential business (remember those). The nature of the work mixes people in close proximity with many different overlapping shifts.

Within the past month this business went from maskless to a strict policy of masks for unvaccinated employees.

Some of the vaccinated people continue to wear masks as a show of solidarity.

In the past several days there has been an outbreak of covid. (Roughly 4 to 6% of workforce). All confirmed cases are in the vaccinated group and all from the maskless crowd.

No cases in the masked employees...whether they were vaccinated or not.

I might rethink my opinion of masks.

Ps...i asked if any of those infected had covid previously but my acquaintance couldn't remember if they had ever been out and wasnt close enough to ask them.

Maybe we need to define what an outbreak is first?

According to the dictionary an outbreak is a sudden rise in the incidence of a disease.

So, are these employees merely testing positive for Covid or exhibiting
the symptoms of actually having the disease of Covid?

The distinction is important to determining whether or not wearing a mask prevents something.

Sir H

[tribrac]

No we don't need to define outbreak or split hairs over having a virus or a disease. My story gave the context for the words and it is clearly water cooler talk not a scientific publication.

[HVDC]

No we don't need to define outbreak or split hairs over having a virus or a disease. My story gave the context for the words and it is clearly water cooler talk not a scientific publication.

My bad, I wasn't trying to start an argument with you I thought your management was using that term and trying to make it sound scarier than it is.

In any case, it would be hard to determine exactly how the virus was actually spread.

Good luck!

Sir H

[anonymous91]

Why are they even tracking breakthrough infections? Aren't they saying that there is no expectation that you won't get infected, and that the gene hack was only meant to keep you out of the hospital?

I know they were telling us a few months ago that the shot was going to end the pandemic if we could get 70% of the country needled up, but that was then, and we're supposed to forget all that, per the government censors.

But why bother even calling them breakthroughs? It's just "infections" now, right Anthony "Wizard of Oz" Fauci?

They are blaming all of this on the "unvaccinated", they want 100% compliance (Cough*absolute Total Control* Cough). The story goes that the unvaccinated are spreading the new variants, and we can only stamp it out if we all get vaccinated. The agenda is everywhere right in front of us. Since when did we all decide to throw away our Freedom and Liberty for a little bit of supposed Safety. SMH

[anonymous91]

Yeah, don't you love how they never actually tell you the actual numbers, only what percentage risk one has. It's obvious that they don't want to talk about actual numbers or breakthrough deaths and hospitalizations.

You can always just look them up:
https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

I'll use your type of statistics, franklin:

According to the Utah Department of health, over the last 28 days for every 200 fully vaccinated people who have tested positive for covid, 1 has died. In contrast, for every 207.5 unvaccinated people who have tested positive for covid 1 has died. In other words, among current covid cases, those who are fully vaccinated are dying from covid at a higher rate than those who are unvaccinated.
vaccinatedrate.png

There are several problems with that takeaway:

1. The total breakthrough deaths is 29. Anytime your sample size is that small relative to the population, it's difficult to draw a significant conclusion.

2. Unless there's reason to think that vaxed folk are doing something else to avoid infection, the important number is the overall death rate, not the lethality rate. In this case, the death rates aren't even close.

3. There's reason to believe that the number of unreported breakthroughs is higher than the number of unreported unvaxed cases. If the vax reduces the symptoms, as the death and hospitalization rates reflect, then we would expect what would otherwise be mild cases to be even less severe, decreasing the likelihood of testing.

Lol, I just went to the hospital a few weeks ago. I suffer from Gastroparesis and end up in the hospital every few months. The funny thing is the nurses were attempting to convince me that I had Covid symptoms instead. I knew that was nonsense, but how many people are coerced into thinking just that.

You go into the Hospital with a standard everyday cold and walk out as a bonafide Covid survivor.

The numbers don't mean anything, since these have been manipulated from day one.

Last year mid- November I was tracking annual deaths for that year (2020), and they were completely in line with the last year, with little variance. In fact, several years before death rates were much higher for several years running. Apparently, this was not info. Google wanted me to see anymore, they buried the site and it disappeared soon after. Kind of hard to have a "plandemic" when real statistics show a very different story. That's not a problem now that most information is controlled by a few monopolized businesses (ie. Google, FB, Youtube, etc.), and they can make information disappear, rewrite history, run misinformation/disinformation campaigns, and manipulate information any way that they want too, talk about wagging the dog.

Apparently, it seems to be working too, just look at any of Mark Dice's videos and you will see how dumbed down some people truly are.

[Lemarque]

I'll use your type of statistics, franklin:

According to the Utah Department of health, over the last 28 days for every 200 fully vaccinated people who have tested positive for covid, 1 has died. In contrast, for every 207.5 unvaccinated people who have tested positive for covid 1 has died. In other words, among current covid cases, those who are fully vaccinated are dying from covid at a higher rate than those who are unvaccinated.
vaccinatedrate.png

There are several problems with that takeaway:

1. The total breakthrough deaths is 29. Anytime your sample size is that small relative to the population, it's difficult to draw a significant conclusion.

2. Unless there's reason to think that vaxed folk are doing something else to avoid infection, the important number is the overall death rate, not the lethality rate. In this case, the death rates aren't even close.

3. There's reason to believe that the number of unreported breakthroughs is higher than the number of unreported unvaxed cases. If the vax reduces the symptoms, as the death and hospitalization rates reflect, then we would expect what would otherwise be mild cases to be even less severe, decreasing the likelihood of testing.

1. Those numbers are from just the last 28 days, not total. I'm just comparing the numbers they give for the last 28 days. At what number of deaths would you say a significant conclusion can be drawn? Were you were in favor of Utah shutting down when under 10 total cases in the whole state had been identified? Was that enough data to come to the significant conclusion to shut down the state?

2. Do you think masks work? My experience is that everyone I've run into that is still wearing a mask is vaccinated (unless they are a store employee where masks are required). I also recall a poll recently showing that unvaccinated are more likely to be willing to go to a movie, on a cruise, and other things like that than those who are vaccinated. Here's an example of what the people who most closely "follow the experts" are told. https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/not-vac ... 59880.html

"The important number" is whatever the person creating the statistic wants it to be. For me, I'm more concerned about lethality because I've been told multiple times over the last month that in terms of catching the delta variant it's not if, it's when. The data show that over the last 28 days among those who have tested positive for covid, it has been more lethal to those who are vaccinated.

3. "There's reason to believe..." is not data. I also believe that the number of breakthrough cases is higher than reported, but I don't think that it's higher than unreported unvaccinated cases. So until one of us can find actual data to support one of those positions, that speculation is pointless.

So until then, it is 100% accurate to say that according to the Utah data released on August 17, covid has been more lethal to those who are vaccinated than those who are unvaccinated among people who have tested positive for covid between July 17 and August 14.

1. The 29 total deaths seems to be overall, not the 28 day numbers. It's hard to say when they're statistically reliable, but usually it's when adding or subtracting a couple doesn't substantially change the results.

2. They marginally work, but I largely don't wear one now that I'm vaxed.

3. "Reason to believe" is how people talk about preliminary data. Preliminary data is neither worthless, nor is it definitive.

Since 29 unvaxed people die every week for a while, I think there's good data for how to get a better outcome.

Can you provide a link to some of this preliminary data? I'm really interested to see what preliminary data is showing about the true number of breakthrough infections.

I wish they would release the test positivity rate for vaccinated vs unvaccinated. That would give us a better idea.

[franklinbluth]

There are several problems with that takeaway:

1. The total breakthrough deaths is 29. Anytime your sample size is that small relative to the population, it's difficult to draw a significant conclusion.

2. Unless there's reason to think that vaxed folk are doing something else to avoid infection, the important number is the overall death rate, not the lethality rate. In this case, the death rates aren't even close.

3. There's reason to believe that the number of unreported breakthroughs is higher than the number of unreported unvaxed cases. If the vax reduces the symptoms, as the death and hospitalization rates reflect, then we would expect what would otherwise be mild cases to be even less severe, decreasing the likelihood of testing.

1. Those numbers are from just the last 28 days, not total. I'm just comparing the numbers they give for the last 28 days. At what number of deaths would you say a significant conclusion can be drawn? Were you were in favor of Utah shutting down when under 10 total cases in the whole state had been identified? Was that enough data to come to the significant conclusion to shut down the state?

2. Do you think masks work? My experience is that everyone I've run into that is still wearing a mask is vaccinated (unless they are a store employee where masks are required). I also recall a poll recently showing that unvaccinated are more likely to be willing to go to a movie, on a cruise, and other things like that than those who are vaccinated. Here's an example of what the people who most closely "follow the experts" are told. https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/not-vac ... 59880.html

"The important number" is whatever the person creating the statistic wants it to be. For me, I'm more concerned about lethality because I've been told multiple times over the last month that in terms of catching the delta variant it's not if, it's when. The data show that over the last 28 days among those who have tested positive for covid, it has been more lethal to those who are vaccinated.

3. "There's reason to believe..." is not data. I also believe that the number of breakthrough cases is higher than reported, but I don't think that it's higher than unreported unvaccinated cases. So until one of us can find actual data to support one of those positions, that speculation is pointless.

So until then, it is 100% accurate to say that according to the Utah data released on August 17, covid has been more lethal to those who are vaccinated than those who are unvaccinated among people who have tested positive for covid between July 17 and August 14.

1. The 29 total deaths seems to be overall, not the 28 day numbers. It's hard to say when they're statistically reliable, but usually it's when adding or subtracting a couple doesn't substantially change the results.

2. They marginally work, but I largely don't wear one now that I'm vaxed.

3. "Reason to believe" is how people talk about preliminary data. Preliminary data is neither worthless, nor is it definitive.

Since 29 unvaxed people die every week for a while, I think there's good data for how to get a better outcome.

Can you provide a link to some of this preliminary data? I'm really interested to see what preliminary data is showing about the true number of breakthrough infections.

I wish they would release the test positivity rate for vaccinated vs unvaccinated. That would give us a better idea.

The Utah health department's site has pretty good data.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

Under the risk Factors tab, they track cases for vaxed and unvaxed. So for the past few days:
8/14 - 746 unvaxed, 133 vaxed
8/13 - 947 unvaxed, 180 vaxed
8/12 - 715 unvaxed, 173 vaxed
8/11 - 1036 unvaxed, 207 vaxed

[Godislove]

Why are they even tracking breakthrough infections? Aren't they saying that there is no expectation that you won't get infected, and that the gene hack was only meant to keep you out of the hospital?

I know they were telling us a few months ago that the shot was going to end the pandemic if we could get 70% of the country needled up, but that was then, and we're supposed to forget all that, per the government censors.

But why bother even calling them breakthroughs? It's just "infections" now, right Anthony "Wizard of Oz" Fauci?

They are blaming all of this on the "unvaccinated", they want 100% compliance (Cough*absolute Total Control* Cough). The story goes that the unvaccinated are spreading the new variants, and we can only stamp it out if we all get vaccinated. The agenda is everywhere right in front of us. Since when did we all decide to throw away our Freedom and Liberty for a little bit of supposed Safety. SMH

Interesting that it is all being blamed on the unvaccinated. Who is to say the vaccinated aren't the ones causing the greatest amount of spread?
Their own bodies are creating Covid Spike proteins, thanks to the MRNA vaccines and who's to say the spike proteins they are constantly creating aren't producing the new variants?
Add that to the breakthrough cases and the fact that if they do get covid their symptoms are supposedly suppressed which could make them a greater risk of spreading covid because of such mild symptoms or being asymptomatic.
Also, in my opinion the current vaccines are not proving to be very effective with the amount of breakthrough cases and the fact that you should now have a booster after only 8 months.

[alurker]

1. Those numbers are from just the last 28 days, not total. I'm just comparing the numbers they give for the last 28 days. At what number of deaths would you say a significant conclusion can be drawn? Were you were in favor of Utah shutting down when under 10 total cases in the whole state had been identified? Was that enough data to come to the significant conclusion to shut down the state?

2. Do you think masks work? My experience is that everyone I've run into that is still wearing a mask is vaccinated (unless they are a store employee where masks are required). I also recall a poll recently showing that unvaccinated are more likely to be willing to go to a movie, on a cruise, and other things like that than those who are vaccinated. Here's an example of what the people who most closely "follow the experts" are told. https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/not-vac ... 59880.html

"The important number" is whatever the person creating the statistic wants it to be. For me, I'm more concerned about lethality because I've been told multiple times over the last month that in terms of catching the delta variant it's not if, it's when. The data show that over the last 28 days among those who have tested positive for covid, it has been more lethal to those who are vaccinated.

3. "There's reason to believe..." is not data. I also believe that the number of breakthrough cases is higher than reported, but I don't think that it's higher than unreported unvaccinated cases. So until one of us can find actual data to support one of those positions, that speculation is pointless.

So until then, it is 100% accurate to say that according to the Utah data released on August 17, covid has been more lethal to those who are vaccinated than those who are unvaccinated among people who have tested positive for covid between July 17 and August 14.

1. The 29 total deaths seems to be overall, not the 28 day numbers. It's hard to say when they're statistically reliable, but usually it's when adding or subtracting a couple doesn't substantially change the results.

2. They marginally work, but I largely don't wear one now that I'm vaxed.

3. "Reason to believe" is how people talk about preliminary data. Preliminary data is neither worthless, nor is it definitive.

Since 29 unvaxed people die every week for a while, I think there's good data for how to get a better outcome.

Can you provide a link to some of this preliminary data? I'm really interested to see what preliminary data is showing about the true number of breakthrough infections.

I wish they would release the test positivity rate for vaccinated vs unvaccinated. That would give us a better idea.

The Utah health department's site has pretty good data.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

Under the risk Factors tab, they track cases for vaxed and unvaxed. So for the past few days:
8/14 - 746 unvaxed, 133 vaxed
8/13 - 947 unvaxed, 180 vaxed
8/12 - 715 unvaxed, 173 vaxed
8/11 - 1036 unvaxed, 207 vaxed

And yet Israel which has 65% of it's pop. fully vaccinated is seeing a 64 vaxed to 36 unvax rate in the hospital; i.e. it's the same pop. ratio.

This is why they have now recommended a 3rd shot. Israel is much farther ahead in the process than the US. So give it a few months and those percentages will flip.

[Thinker]

We don't even know what the Delta variant is. It is undefined by WHO and CDC. It is a random collection of Corona Virus related infections. We don't even have a real test for COVID-19, it is still SARS-COV-2. So, I don't believe any of the numbers. What they are running $10Ks per test for some DNA sequence on millions of patients?

Things are worse, I think lets say vax works, you still get the disease but you don't feel sick. You do your thing, you spread it. It gets to 10-50 X people because millions of infected are asymptomatic but they don't even know it. Say it is 90% effective but 10% still need hospitals but 50x more exposed..............500% increase. Just doing random math, do your own, either way if you make sick people think they are healthy then you kill more people..

That’s a good point. And some countries doing strict lockdowns will also exasperate things by not allowing the usual strong immune system people to take the brunt of whatever bug is going around - and then the bug can be more lethal especially when those with weakened immune systems are eventually confronted with the brunt.

Then again, how do bugs become worse? There’s this notion that if too many people take antibiotics - then bugs can become resistant to them. Could that also happen in this case?

This is of course, besides the many deaths & disabilities resulting from the covid shots (which are not actually vaccines).

[franklinbluth]

1. The 29 total deaths seems to be overall, not the 28 day numbers. It's hard to say when they're statistically reliable, but usually it's when adding or subtracting a couple doesn't substantially change the results.

2. They marginally work, but I largely don't wear one now that I'm vaxed.

3. "Reason to believe" is how people talk about preliminary data. Preliminary data is neither worthless, nor is it definitive.

Since 29 unvaxed people die every week for a while, I think there's good data for how to get a better outcome.

Can you provide a link to some of this preliminary data? I'm really interested to see what preliminary data is showing about the true number of breakthrough infections.

I wish they would release the test positivity rate for vaccinated vs unvaccinated. That would give us a better idea.

The Utah health department's site has pretty good data.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

Under the risk Factors tab, they track cases for vaxed and unvaxed. So for the past few days:
8/14 - 746 unvaxed, 133 vaxed
8/13 - 947 unvaxed, 180 vaxed
8/12 - 715 unvaxed, 173 vaxed
8/11 - 1036 unvaxed, 207 vaxed

And yet Israel which has 65% of it's pop. fully vaccinated is seeing a 64 vaxed to 36 unvax rate in the hospital; i.e. it's the same pop. ratio.

This is why they have now recommended a 3rd shot. Israel is much farther ahead in the process than the US. So give it a few months and those percentages will flip.

The data out of Israel are definitely bad news for vaccine efficacy. But that's not the only data point. There are always outliers. In this case, a possible reason for the hospitalization of vaxed people is the vaxed population is disproportionately old (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/isra ... ion-by-age). The balance of the data from around the world is that the vax does reduce hospitalization and death. Obviously much of these data are preliminary, but we certainly need to look at all of them the data when we assess the vax's efficacy.

[TrueFaith]

A person i know works in an essential business (remember those). The nature of the work mixes people in close proximity with many different overlapping shifts.

Within the past month this business went from maskless to a strict policy of masks for unvaccinated employees.

Some of the vaccinated people continue to wear masks as a show of solidarity.

In the past several days there has been an outbreak of covid. (Roughly 4 to 6% of workforce). All confirmed cases are in the vaccinated group and all from the maskless crowd.

No cases in the masked employees...whether they were vaccinated or not.

I might rethink my opinion of masks.

Ps...i asked if any of those infected had covid previously but my acquaintance couldn't remember if they had ever been out and wasnt close enough to ask them.

To prevent a cold nobody is dying from.

[Lemarque]

1. Those numbers are from just the last 28 days, not total. I'm just comparing the numbers they give for the last 28 days. At what number of deaths would you say a significant conclusion can be drawn? Were you were in favor of Utah shutting down when under 10 total cases in the whole state had been identified? Was that enough data to come to the significant conclusion to shut down the state?

2. Do you think masks work? My experience is that everyone I've run into that is still wearing a mask is vaccinated (unless they are a store employee where masks are required). I also recall a poll recently showing that unvaccinated are more likely to be willing to go to a movie, on a cruise, and other things like that than those who are vaccinated. Here's an example of what the people who most closely "follow the experts" are told. https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/not-vac ... 59880.html

"The important number" is whatever the person creating the statistic wants it to be. For me, I'm more concerned about lethality because I've been told multiple times over the last month that in terms of catching the delta variant it's not if, it's when. The data show that over the last 28 days among those who have tested positive for covid, it has been more lethal to those who are vaccinated.

3. "There's reason to believe..." is not data. I also believe that the number of breakthrough cases is higher than reported, but I don't think that it's higher than unreported unvaccinated cases. So until one of us can find actual data to support one of those positions, that speculation is pointless.

So until then, it is 100% accurate to say that according to the Utah data released on August 17, covid has been more lethal to those who are vaccinated than those who are unvaccinated among people who have tested positive for covid between July 17 and August 14.

1. The 29 total deaths seems to be overall, not the 28 day numbers. It's hard to say when they're statistically reliable, but usually it's when adding or subtracting a couple doesn't substantially change the results.

2. They marginally work, but I largely don't wear one now that I'm vaxed.

3. "Reason to believe" is how people talk about preliminary data. Preliminary data is neither worthless, nor is it definitive.

Since 29 unvaxed people die every week for a while, I think there's good data for how to get a better outcome.

Can you provide a link to some of this preliminary data? I'm really interested to see what preliminary data is showing about the true number of breakthrough infections.

I wish they would release the test positivity rate for vaccinated vs unvaccinated. That would give us a better idea.

The Utah health department's site has pretty good data.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

Under the risk Factors tab, they track cases for vaxed and unvaxed. So for the past few days:
8/14 - 746 unvaxed, 133 vaxed
8/13 - 947 unvaxed, 180 vaxed
8/12 - 715 unvaxed, 173 vaxed
8/11 - 1036 unvaxed, 207 vaxed

Maybe I'm not being clear. You said:

3. There's reason to believe that the number of unreported breakthroughs is higher than the number of unreported unvaxed cases.

I said that having reason to believe something is pretty much worthless unless you have data to back it up. You said you were referring to preliminary data. I'm asking where you are seeing preliminary data that shows there are more unreported cases among the vaccinated than the vaccinated.

Those statistics are the number of reported cases, not unreported cases.

[franklinbluth]

1. The 29 total deaths seems to be overall, not the 28 day numbers. It's hard to say when they're statistically reliable, but usually it's when adding or subtracting a couple doesn't substantially change the results.

2. They marginally work, but I largely don't wear one now that I'm vaxed.

3. "Reason to believe" is how people talk about preliminary data. Preliminary data is neither worthless, nor is it definitive.

Since 29 unvaxed people die every week for a while, I think there's good data for how to get a better outcome.

Can you provide a link to some of this preliminary data? I'm really interested to see what preliminary data is showing about the true number of breakthrough infections.

I wish they would release the test positivity rate for vaccinated vs unvaccinated. That would give us a better idea.

The Utah health department's site has pretty good data.

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/

Under the risk Factors tab, they track cases for vaxed and unvaxed. So for the past few days:
8/14 - 746 unvaxed, 133 vaxed
8/13 - 947 unvaxed, 180 vaxed
8/12 - 715 unvaxed, 173 vaxed
8/11 - 1036 unvaxed, 207 vaxed

Maybe I'm not being clear. You said:

3. There's reason to believe that the number of unreported breakthroughs is higher than the number of unreported unvaxed cases.

I said that having reason to believe something is pretty much worthless unless you have data to back it up. You said you were referring to preliminary data. I'm asking where you are seeing preliminary data that shows there are more unreported cases among the vaccinated than the vaccinated.

Those statistics are the number of reported cases, not unreported cases.

Oh sure, it's because of the higher incidence of asymptomatic infection among vaccinated.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2779854

[BeNotDeceived]

Yes, how dare I interrupt the echo chamber with pesky facts.

Statement of Fact:


What say you?